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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 81W/82W from 12N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong from 04N to 06N between 77W and 80W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through 10N85W to a 1010 mb low
pressure center that is near 09N93W, to 13N109W, to a 1010 mb
low pressure center that is near 11N121W, and to 08N127W.
The ITCZ continues from 08N127W to 07N135W, and beyond 06N140W.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 270 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 94W and
107W, and within 150 nm to the south of the monsoon trough
between 116W and 120W. Numerous strong within 60 NM to the
south of the ITCZ between 137W and 139W.

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 11N121W. Convective
precipitation...numerous strong within 90 nm to the north and
northwest of the monsoon trough and the 1010 mb low pressure
center, between 119w and 124w.

...DISCUSSION...                                        

A surface ridge is along 23N117W to 26N130W beyond 32N135W.
Surface high pressure covers the eastern Pacific Ocean from 17N
northward from 116W westward. ASCAT winds have been showing
fresh north to northeast winds from the ITCZ to 22N from 118W
westward. Gale-force northerly winds that are to the north of
the area near the California coast are expected to produce an
area sea heights of 8 feet to 9 feet. The 8 foot to 9 foot sea
heights are forecast to reach as far as 28N between 122W and
129W during the next few days. 

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 11N122W. The latest
scatterometer data from 29/0500 utc showed 20 to 25 knot wind
speeds near the low center. The consensus of the global models
showed that the low center was going to be surrounded by 20 to
25 knot wind speeds and 8 to 10 foot sea heights for the first
24 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. The wind speeds are
forecast to weaken to 20 knots or less for day two. The sea
heights continue to range from 8 feet to 9 feet, mostly in the
vicinity of the low center. Yesterday's forecast showed that the
cross-equatorial swell was going to envelop and include the area
of the low pressure center. Today's forecast keeps 8 foot to 10
foot swells separate for the low center separate from the areas
of the cross-equatorial swell.

$$
mt