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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI DEC 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N80W TO 06N92W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N92W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 79W 
AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S 
OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

1033 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 42N138W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD 
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N112W TO 
26N125W THEN STATIONARY TO 28N145W. AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE 
PASS INDICATED A SMALL TRANSIENT LOW PRES AREA ALONG THIS FRONT 
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS HAS LIKELY 
WEAKENED AND SHIFTED INLAND TOWARD SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE ASCAT 
PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE LOW PRES FROM 28N TO 30N OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH VARIOUS ASCAT AND RAPIDSCAT 
SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATED FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE OF THE FRONT BASED ON RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH S ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WHILE WEAKENING...AND DISSIPATE 
BY SAT. SHORT PERIOD N SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW 
SWELL N OF 25N E OF 125W WITH HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 14 FT.  

TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC W OF 120W REMAIN LIMITED 
TO 15 TO 20 KT OR LESS. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
DEVELOPING LOW PRES NE OF HAWAII AND THE PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...N OF 22N W OF 135W THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE 
BY LATE SAT. 

DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W 
AND 110W. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RAPIDSCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 02 UTC 
INDICATED 25 TO 30 KT GAP WINDS STILL ACTIVE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...BUT BELOW THE GALE FORCE WINDS THAT WERE ACTIVE 
EARLIER YESTERDAY. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED 
HIGH PRES N OF AREA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS WEAKENED AND IS 
SHIFTING WEST...ALLOWING FOR GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO DIMINISH FURTHER TO 20 KT OR LESS LATER TODAY.  
AN AREA OF REMAINING NE SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE 
SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE GULF REGION AND REACHING FROM 06N TO 
13N BETWEEN 99W AND 107W LATE TODAY. LOOKING AHEAD...LATEST 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT STRONG PULSE OF GAP WINDS INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON 
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS 
WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS IS ENHANCING 
GAP WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A 
RECENT ASCAT PASS FROM 0330 UTC INDICATED WINDS TO 30 KT. THE 
STRONG GAP WINDS WILL GENERATE A PLUME OF 8-11 FT SEAS 
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOURCE REGION THIS MORNING... WITH 8-9 FT 
SWELL REACHING TO 101W SAT. A WEAKER DIURNAL PULSE IS EXPECTED 
LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD BEHIND A 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THROUGH SAT. THIS IS RESULTING IN A 
STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT THAT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE FRESH 
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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Page last modified: Friday, 26-Dec-2014 09:20:28 UTC