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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jun 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N92W to low pressure 
near 10N101W 1010 mb to low pressure near 13N114W 1011 MB TO
14N124W to low pressure near 14N126W 1010 mb to low pressure near
12N132W 1008 mb to low pressure near 09N135W 1011 mb to beyond
06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 04N
to 08N between 77W and 82W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection exists from 10N to 15N between 93W and 102W. Scattered
strong convection is within 30 nm of axis between 89W and 92W, and
also between 120W and 121W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

A NNW to SSE oriented trough will remain over the Baja California
peninsula and northern Gulf of California through this weekend.
The trough will maintain gentle to moderate S flow across the
Gulf waters.

NW swell generated by strong to gale force winds along the
California coast will cause seas N of 26N and W of 118W to build
to between 8 and 9 ft on Sat. The swell will begin to subside on
Sat night, and allow for seas in this area to subside to less
than 8 ft on Sun.

A high pres ridge extends southeastward from 23N120W to 18N109W.
Gentle anticyclonic winds are noted in the vicinity of the ridge
from 20N to 25N between 110W and 120W.

Fresh north to northeast winds are pulsing across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this morning. Resultant seas of 8 ft are due to
northeast wind waves mixing with long period SW swell. The winds
will become light and variable by this evening with seas subsiding
to just under 8 ft. Winds will then become briefly become fresh
north to northeast in the mornings each day through Saturday and
light and variable in the afternoons.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow prevails S of the monsoon
trough, while gentle to moderate NE to E winds are observed N of
the monsoon trough.

Fresh NE winds are occurring through the Gulf of Papagayo, and 
west to 91W with seas to 8 ft as the NE wind waves mix with SW
swell. Lighter winds and seas less than 8 ft are expected tonight
through Saturday. A similar gap wind event on Saturday could lead
to seas to again build to 8 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo.

Long period SW swell mixing with smaller swell components are
maintaining combined seas just above 8 ft from 02N to 15N between
94W and 112W, and from 05N to 11N between 90W and 94W as indicated
a recent altimeter pass. The swell energy is forecast by
wavewatch guidance to gradually dissipate through early Saturday
afternoon allowing for seas to subside to less than 8 ft.

Model guidance continues to suggest that the low pressure near
10N101W will become better organized on by late Friday, and 
gradually strengthen while tracking in a general west to west-
northwestward direction through the weekend.

W of 120W:

A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters N of 15N. A swath of 7 to
9 ft seas dominated by NE swell is observed within 150 nm either
side of a line from 30N129W to 21N136W. These conditions will
spread SW through tonight. A reinforcing surge of large N swell
will allow for seas north of 24N to build to between 8 and 10 ft
on Sat. These swell will begin to subside on Sat night and allow
seas in this area to drop below 8 ft by Mon.

$$
AGUIRRE

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Page last modified: Thursday, 30-Jun-2016 16:05:23 UTC