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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310248
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                    
TROPICAL STORM VANCE IS THE 20TH NAMED STORM OF THE TROPICAL 
SEASON. VANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W OR ABOUT 375 
NM...695 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AT 31/0300 UTC MOVING TOWARD 
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF 
THE CYCLONE REMAINS NEAR THE SW EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT 
IN GENERAL THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM HAS IMPROVED 
WITH A DISTINCT BAND TO THE NE AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM NE 
SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN 
IN A BAND ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W 
AND 105W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
STARTING AT 01/0000 UTC. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED 
OBSERVATIONS OF 20-30 KT NLY WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION 
THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE 
FORCE BY FRI EVENING. THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH 
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 
SAT. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 12-16 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS 
BY EARLY SAT. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST 
THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE THE SECOND GALE 
FORCE EVENT OF THE COLD SEASON 2014-2015. WINDS MAY REACH AGAIN 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 08N90W TO 10N97W THEN 
RESUMES W OF T.S. VANCE FROM 09N105W TO 08N110W TO 13N121W TO 
09N133W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 09N133W TO 08N140W. 
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 08N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 
08N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 
30N132W TO 26N140W FOLLOWED BY MAINLY MODERATE NLY WINDS. THE 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM 30N128W TO 27N132W TO 
23N140W BY FRI MORNING WHILE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN W OF 130W. 
THEN...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS 
THROUGH SAT WHILE WEAKENING. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL IS EXPECTED 
TO FOLLOW THE FRONT. A MODERATE TO STRONG HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE 
OF THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE 
WEST-CENTRAL WATERS LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. MARINE GUIDANCE 
SUGGEST A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS FROM 13N 
TO 22N W OF 132W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BY EARLY SAT 
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY SAT EVENING WITH THE SWELL 
EVENT SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS 
OF 8-12 FT IN NW SWELL W OF A LINE FROM 30N119W TO 20N130W TO 
11N134W BY SAT EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB IS CENTERED SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 
27N130W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N112W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE W WATERS GENERALLY FROM 10N TO 
18N W OF 120W. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED 
EARLY SUN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO 
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$ 
GR


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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Oct-2014 02:48:55 UTC