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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291521
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jun 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 97N north of 08N is moving west at 15 kt. 
Minimal convection is associated with this wave.

A second tropical wave is along 89W north of 07N.  Scattered 
moderate convection associated to this wave is north of 09N, 
within 40 nm of the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N89W to 09N98W to 
06N105W. The ITCZ extends further west from 13N108W to 12N122W 
to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 05N to 10N between 78W and 95W, and from 07N to 11N 
between 117W and 139W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The remnant low of Dora is centered near 21N116.5W. Winds and 
seas associated to this low continue to diminish as it drifts 
west-northwest over cooler water. The low will dissipate Friday.

Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the waters west of Baja 
California, with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere. 
Seas are 2-3 ft over the Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft across 
over the remainder of the forecast area. Gentle to moderate 
winds off the coast of the Baja California through Saturday will 
diminish Sunday and Monday. Light to gentle winds will prevail 
over the remainder of the forecast waters off southwest Mexico. 
Model guidance shows southerly winds increasing to 20 kt in the 
northern Gulf of California on Sunday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across most of the
region, except southerly winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands. Cross-equatorial southerly swell is subsiding across 
the region with seas of 8-9 ft, falling to 5-6 ft this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Light to gentle winds prevail from 10N to 20N west of 120W, with 
gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft 
west of 120W. 8-10 ft seas in cross-equatorial swell south of 
10N and east of 125W will subside below 8 ft by Saturday. Strong 
northerly winds west of California Friday through Sunday will 
build seas to 7-9 ft between 118W and 127W Sunday and Monday.

$$
Mundell

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Page last modified: Thursday, 29-Jun-2017 15:21:38 UTC