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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED MAR 4 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO 
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT SUDDEN 
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING... 
FOLLOWED BY PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE REGION THROUGH SUN 
MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT EARLY FRI...AND 
REACH A PEAK AROUND 18-20 FT FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TODAY AS 
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. WEAK ITCZ 
IS ANALYZED FROM 06N132W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 15N111W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W 
AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION... 

MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 15N121W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N109W TO 14N118W IS A REMNANT COLD FRONT. 

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES CENTERED 
NEAR 14N133W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS 
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE 
COLD FRONT. 

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE 
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST 
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS REACHING 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM 
DRAINAGE FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THU.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THU NIGHT IN NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND HIGH PRES 
BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. 20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 26N 
LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$ 
MUNDELL


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 04-Mar-2015 15:25:23 UTC