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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162119
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1918 UTC Tue Jan 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds 
continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A cold front in the NW 
Gulf of Mexico will continue to shift SE. High pressure building
behind the front will tighten the pressure gradient over the 
area, and help increase winds to strong gales across Tehuantepec 
tonight. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force by 
Friday. The resultant plume of NE swell has propagated well 
southwest of Tehuantepec, with seas to 8 ft and higher currently 
reaching as far S as the Equator and as far W as 110W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N77W to 08N86W to 05N92W. The 
ITCZ extends from 05N92W to 07N117W to 07N132W to beyond 
08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 04N to 07N between 80W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection was noted within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 
98W and 107W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was 
noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 130W and 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See special feature section for information about the ongoing 
gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

W of the Baja California Peninsula: Large NW swell is propagating
into the waters west of the Baja Peninsula, with seas of 9 to 12
ft prevailing. This large swell will generate powerful surf 
along the coasts and outer reefs of Baja and mainland Mexico 
through Wed. Another set of NW swell will reach the offshore 
waters off Baja California Norte Thursday night. Seas associated 
to this swell will peak near 16 ft by Friday. Seas 12 ft or 
greater will spread across the offshore waters off the entire 
length of the Baja Peninsula through the weekend. 

Gulf of California: Light to moderate NW flow is forecast across 
across the entire gulf waters through Fri, except for a brief 
period of fresh winds Wed afternoon through Wed night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh NE gap winds winds will pulse to strong each night across 
the Gulf of Papagayo the remainder of the week. Elsewhere N of 
09N moderate offshore gap winds will diminish to light to gentle 
midweek. S of 09N light to gentle winds will prevail. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Large, long period NW swell is propagating SE across the 
forecast waters. Seas in the 12 to 14 ft range prevail W of a 
line from 30N116W to 15N120W to 10N125W. Seas of 8 ft or greater
associated to this swell prevail W of 110W. The next pulse of 
large NW swell will enter the NW waters Wednesday night, with 
seas peaking near 18 ft. This swell will build seas greater than 
12 ft over much of the waters N of 15N and W of 120W by Sat 
night. 

$$
AL

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Jan-2018 21:19:35 UTC