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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270251
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED AUG 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

HURRICANE MARIE WAS CENTERED NEAR 21.6N 121.4W 971 MB AT 0300 
UTC AUG 27 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 
MB. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
CENTER...SURROUNDING A SMALL AND FILLING EYE. SCATTERED TO 
LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE IN THE SW TO W 
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WELL SE OF THE CENTER...FROM 09N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 111W AND 122W. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 36 FT 
WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF MARIE. LARGE AND POWERFUL 
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO W OF 100W 
SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM MARIE HAVE ALSO 
MOVED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS TODAY...AND WILL 
BUILD THROUGH WED TO PRODUCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF...MINOR 
COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION LIKELY. MARIE IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE MOVING WNW OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER NW OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MOVE ACROSS COOLER SST'S AND WEAKEN TO A 
POST TROPICAL LOW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON 
MARIE...AND THE LOCAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST OFFICES FOR 
MORE ON IMPACTS FROM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA WAS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 126.5W 1005 
MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 27 MOVING SE OR 135 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 1005 MB. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS 
BECOME ELONGATED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS NO LONGER WELL 
DEFINED. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CAUSED 
BY THE OUTFLOW FROM MARIE...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KARINA 
REMAINS LIMITED AND SHEARED TO THE SW OF THE CENTER. KARINA HAS 
THUS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS FORECAST 
TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SEE LAST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N71W TO 08N77W TO 10N85W TO 
10.5N98W TO 11N107W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED E OF MARIE. 
TROUGH RESUMES SW OF MARIE FROM LOW PRES NEAR 15N137.5W TO 
BEYOND 13.5N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 91W...AND WITHIN 100 
NM OF THE COASTLINE FROM 85W TO 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...    

THE REMNANT LOW OF LOWELL THIS EVENING WAS CENTERED NEAR 28N136W 
WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. LOWELL IS STILL 
PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 240 NM ACROSS 
THE N SEMICIRCLE AND WITH SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. THERE IS NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOWELL. LOWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...SHIFTING W OF THE FORECAST WED NIGHT.

CONFUSED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A 
RESULT OF SWELL PROPAGATING AWAY FROM KARINA...LOWELL...AND 
MARIE. MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E OF 100W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY 
MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS 
EXPECTED.

$$
STRIPLING



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-Aug-2014 02:51:52 UTC