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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020222
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC MON MAY 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N100W TO 07N117.5W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 09N123W TO 05N127W. ITCZ EXTENDS W OF
THE TROUGH FROM 05N128W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 94W AND 113W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS NEAR
THE SURFACE TROUGH MAINLY N OF 04N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RIDGE COMBINED
WITH LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS SW U.S. IS GENERATING A PRESSURE
GRADIENT THAT SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS JUST W OF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL.
EXPECT FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE TO
LESS THAN 8 FT WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA COAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E
TRADES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION FROM 07N
TO 10N AND W OF 138W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN A MIXED SWELL. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN BY LATE MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN
TO WEAKEN. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT GENERATED ON THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRIGGERING A NEAR GALE FORCE
TEHUANTEPEC SURGE BY THURSDAY. 

$$

ERA