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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS 
IN THIS AREA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH 
PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY 
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. COLD DENSE AIR IN THE 
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS TO 
ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL QUICKLY 
REACH GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT...WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT 
FORECAST TO PERSIST TO FRI EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE 
TO MINIMAL STORM INTENSITY FRI EVENING THROUGH SAT MORNING. 
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA 
THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19 FT FRI 
MORNING...AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-22 FT BY FRI NIGHT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N125W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION. DURING MARCH AND APRIL OF EACH YEAR...A DOUBLE ITCZ 
IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
BASIN. THIS RATHER SPECIAL FEATURE IS ANALYZED ON THE 0000 UTC 
MAP ALONG 01S102W TO BEYOND 03S120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1026 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 37N126W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION TO NEAR 20N108W. ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN 
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 120W 
WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA HEIGHTS OF 8-10 FT. EXPECT 
THE TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES N OF THE 
AREA MOVES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE NEAR 
30N140W BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. ADDITIONAL PULSES 
OF NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...                                                  
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA SHORTLY 
AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT STARTS. AS STRONG 
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECT WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXTENDING SW AND 
DOWNWIND TO 93W BY EARLY SAT MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF FONSECA. 

NE TO E SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND 
EVENTS WILL PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER 
COVERING ROUGHLY THE FORECAST WATERS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W 
AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS 
OF 20 KT WINDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST OF 20-25 
KNOT WINDS AND 6-8 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

EXPECT ALSO INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR 
SEA OF CORTEZ TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS THE 
GREAT BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT ACROSS THE N 
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 
AROUND 8 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE FRI.

$$
GR



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Page last modified: Friday, 06-Mar-2015 03:27:39 UTC