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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI NOV 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURE...    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO  
SUPPORT STRONG STORM FORCE WINDS OF 45-60 KT ACROSS...AND JUST 
DOWNSTREAM...OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS TO ABOUT 25 
FT. NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXTEND AS FAR S AS 07N BETWEEN 94-
101W...AND EXTEND AS FAR W AS 11N109W. THESE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE 
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... 
AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY SAT 
AFTERNOON. THE N WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY SUN 
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN LATE SUN NIGHT... 
THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MON TO A GALE AGAIN MON NIGHT 
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 07N78W 
TO 06N97W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ 
WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO 09N116W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N101W TO 14N112W...AND WITHIN 150 NM 
OF 11N115W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CARIBBEAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN 20-30
KT NE WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE 
THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT...THEN 
THE NOCTURNAL MAX WILL REACH 25 KT ONLY SAT THROUGH TUE NIGHTS. 

GULF OF FONSECA...EXPECT NE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO 
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT AND 
FURTHER DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON SAT.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 26N140W AND A COLD FRONT 
IS APPROACHING FROM 32N138W TO 29N140W. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE 
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH THE MERGED FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY
FROM 31N130W TO 25N133W EARLY SUN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY 
MON. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH E SWELL RESULTING IN 
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF A 
LINE FROM 32N125W TO 15N123W TO 09N140W. THE AFFECTED AREA WILL 
SHRINK TO NW OF A LINE FROM 32N130W TO 22N140W ON SUN. ANOTHER 
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW WATERS SUN AFTERNOON 
ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-30 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT AND SEAS 8-12 FT. A 
NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 18 KT 
REACHING NEAR 30N140W LATE MON.  

$$
NELSON



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Page last modified: Friday, 28-Nov-2014 09:45:30 UTC