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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N107.5W IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE 
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN 
AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY 
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND 
112W. THE EDGE OF AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.    

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04-12N ALONG 96W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W 
AND 96W...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 
14N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N120W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW 
CENTER FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. NE TRADES ARE 
ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE 
LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. 

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N132W WITH ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF 
LOW CENTER. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE 
N SUPPORTS AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM N 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THE LOW 
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN 
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS 
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP 
TROPICS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND 124W. 

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 
30N128W DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF 
110W. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW WATERS AND 
EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER 
AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH THROUGH THU 
NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W. 

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS 
PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS 
OF 6-7 FT.

$$ 
GR

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-May-2015 22:00:44 UTC