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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010246
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                    
TROPICAL STORM VANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 9.5N 101.8W OR ABOUT 455 
NM...850 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AT 01/0300 UTC MOVING TOWARD 
THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 45 KT. ALTHOUGH VANCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE 
PAST FEW HOURS...RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AND VANCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE 
SUNDAY. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH VANCE HAS DIMINISHED 
SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH THE CENTER EXPOSED AT TIMES. SATELLITE 
IMAGES SHOW A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 
NM W OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE 
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. SEE THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED 20-30 KT NLY WINDS 
ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS EVENING...REACHING 
40 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 12-16 FT 
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST 
TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE 
THE SECOND GALE FORCE EVENT OF THE COLD SEASON 2014-2015. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 09N90W TO 10N98W...THEN 
RESUMES W OF T.S. VANCE FROM 09N105W TO 07N110W TO 1009 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 12N122W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 96W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 105W AND 
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 08N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 122W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A LOW PRES AREA HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 12N122W OR ABOUT 920 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION WITH SOME 
BANDING FEATURES. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW PRES IS POSSIBLE 
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE BY EARLY NEXT 
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS ONLY A LOW CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TOWARD 
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IS 
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW PRES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 
30N123W TO 23N140W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND 
THE FRONT PER SCATTEROMETER DATA. A SET OF NW SWELL FOLLOWS THE 
FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AS HIGH AS 12 FT. THIS SWELL EVENT IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MIXING WITH NE 
WIND WAVES GENERATING BY THE TRADE WIND FLOW. AS THE COLD FRONT 
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE EARLY SAT...HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD 
OVER N WATERS. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND 
LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 
A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AFFECTING MAINLY THE 
WATERS FROM 11N-25N W OF 130W BY LATE SAT. 

EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY 
SUN AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES 
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS 
FORECAST TO COVER THE AREA FROM 09N TO 11N W OF 90W BY EARLY MON 
WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT.

$$ 
GR



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Page last modified: Saturday, 01-Nov-2014 02:46:21 UTC