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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282141
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI NOV 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURE...    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN 
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG GALE FORCE N-NE 
WINDS OF 40-45 KT N OF 14N IN THE GULF WITH MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS 
TO 22 FT. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1542 UTC SHOWED GALE FORCE 
WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 13N96W. THE CARGO SHIP CAP 
PASLEY CALL SIGN A8NQ6 REPORTED 43 KT NEAR 14.6N 95.2W AT 1800 
UTC. NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXTEND AS FAR S AS 07N BETWEEN 94W-
101W...AND EXTEND AS FAR W AS 11N109W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL 
SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY SAT...AND FALL BELOW GALE FORCE BY 
EARLY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO THE 9-12 FT RANGE AS 
THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE MON 
NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH LATE WED. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 08N83W TO 07N89W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 07N89W TO 07N103W TO 11N116W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. THE COLD FRONT 
WILL BECOME STATIONARY SAT FROM 30N132W TO 24N139W AND WEAKEN 
FURTHER TO A TROUGH FROM 30N128W TO 22N136W BY SUN. LONG PERIOD 
NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT ARE PRODUCING COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS OF 
8-9 FT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR NW WATERS SUN WITH 
20-30 KT VEERING WESTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 10-13 FT. 
NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SE 
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH 
COMBINED SEAS TO 21 FT EXPECTED NEAR 32N140W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT RELATED TO CARIBBEAN HIGH 
PRES WILL MAINTAIN NE 20-30 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS 
AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH 
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT...THEN NOCTURNAL MAX WILL REACH 
20-25 KT SAT THROUGH TUE. 

$$
MUNDELL


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Page last modified: Friday, 28-Nov-2014 21:42:10 UTC