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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N130W...MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS WITHIN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW...WITH A CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N129W. THE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS 
STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 124W AND 137W. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STEADILY ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY 
FORM BY TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS IS MEDIUM. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 113W/114W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING 
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL 
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 126W/127W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING 
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN EVIDENT 
CONSISTENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT 
IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST 
SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... 
AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. IT IS DRIFTING 
CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS 
NEAR 10N130W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY LOSE 
ITS DISTINCT DEFINITION AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA OF THE 1006 
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N77W TO 07N81W TO 09N86W TO 07N92W 
TO 05N110W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02N 
TO 10N E OF 88W...FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 98W AND 99W...AND FROM 
09N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 37N130W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 
CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 
24N140W TO 25N130W BEYOND 29N115W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN 
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 150 NM TO 
210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 24N140W 27N130W 
BEYOND 32N117W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10N115W. A 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N111W AND 19N104W 
AT THE COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 20N110W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N127W...BEYOND 30N140W. 

STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS 
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION 
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG 
EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER 
PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FEET...AND PROPAGATING AS FAR TO THE 
WEST AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY 
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF 
YESTERDAY...AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THIS MORNING. THIS 
TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE ITCZ HAS BEEN BROKEN DOWN AS THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THE LOW CENTER REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT 
OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW 
WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
14N140W...AND THEN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N148W. THE FAIRLY WEAK 1019 
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND SURFACE RIDGE ARE MAINTAINING 
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS...EXCEPT 
NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS DUE TO ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 15N129W.

$$
MT


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Page last modified: Monday, 06-Jul-2015 10:03:42 UTC