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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250902
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu May 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The Monsoon Trough extends from 09.5N76W TO 08N83W TO 15N95W TO 
13N103W TO 08N117W TO 09N129W. The ITCZ extends from 09N129W TO 
beyond 07N140W. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection 
is noted from 05N to 10N between 84W and 93W. Scattered to 
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 
beyond 18N between 94W and 106W. Widely scattered to scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm N and 
150 nm S of axis between 113W and 135W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure ridge snakes into the area from the NW and 
then W along about 25N, with the associated gradient supporting 
generally moderate northwest winds across the Baja California 
Peninsula waters. Light to gentle NW to N winds are noted 
elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters to Acapulco. Seas are 
in the 4 to 5 ft range in mixed SW and NW swell across these 
waters, with slightly higher seas of 5 to 6 ft south of Puerto 
Angel. The pressure gradient will tighten slightly to the north 
of 20N through Friday as the ridge builds modestly into the 
region, with winds and seas increasing slightly. Gentle to 
moderate SE winds occurring between Tehuantepec and offshore of 
Acapulco will gradually weaken and veer SW to W through Friday. 
Very active moderate to strong convection occuring across the 
waters from the Tehuantpec region SW to well offshore along 106W 
will shift slowly westward during the next 24 hours. Expect 
frequent lighting, strong gusty winds, and seas 6-9 ft to 
accompany this weather.

In the Gulf of California, mainly light to gentle variable winds 
are expected through Thursday except in the northern Gulf, with 
seas of 2 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance to the 
Gulf. Low pressure is presently deepening rapidly just to the 
north of the area over SW Arizona, and should remain below 
normal through at least Thursday night. A trough will extend 
from the low across the northern Gulf to Baja California Norte 
through Friday. Fresh to strong southwest to west have developed 
to the southeast of the trough tonight, and will do so again on 
Thursday night into Friday as winds become enhanced through the 
gaps in the higher terrain of Baja. Winds gusts could reach 30 
kt downstream of the gaps. Seas are expected to build to 6-8  ft 
each night during the nocturnal wind max.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle SW to W winds prevail between the Papagayo region and 
Tehuantepec, with seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Expect NW to W 
monsoonal winds to spread across the coastal waters through 
Friday as an early season tropical wave moves into the eastern 
Pacific today through Friday. Nocturnal offshore winds will 
pulse to fresh levels near the Gulf of Papagayo by Saturday 
night, behind the wave, and again on Sunday night. Moderate SW 
winds will continue to the south of 09N through Thursday night. 
A new pulse of SW swell is forecast to arrive Thursday through 
late Friday. Otherwise, little change is anticipated through the 
upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge extends from 30N140W southeastward to near 23N132W 
and then eastward to near 26N117W. the ridge will slowly shift 
SE Friday through Saturday as a weak frontal boundary sinks 
southward into the northern waters between 120W and 140W. 
Moderate northerly winds will follow the front into the northern 
waters, with long period N swell producing max seas of 7 to 9 ft 
across the area from 30N to 32N between 125W and 135W today, 
before subsiding to less than 8 ft Friday afternoon. Elsewhere N 
of the deep tropics, the weak ridge will maintain moderate trade 
winds S of 18N, with seas of 5 to 7 ft expected through Friday.

$$
Stripling

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Page last modified: Thursday, 25-May-2017 09:03:01 UTC