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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020235
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jul 02 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Depression Two-E is centered at 14.7N 116.9W 1007 mb at
0300 UTC Jul 02. The depression is moving wnw or 300 deg
at 08 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt
near the center. The most recent scatterometer pass detected 
20-30 kt surface winds out 120 nm over the nw semicircle. 
Convection has increased to scattered moderate to strong within
180 nm nw of the center. The depression is forecast to intensify
to a minimal tropical storm near 15.8N 120.1W late Sat, then
weaken back to a tropical depression near 17.1N 124.4W late Sun.
Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under
Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for additional details.

A 1008 mb low pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough at
10N105.5W. Moderate winds are observed within 270 nm over the n
semicircle of the low, while moderate to fresh southwesterly
flow is observed within about 360 nm s of the low. Currently
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed sw of
the low center, within 90 nm either side of a line from 08N104W
to 13N110W. Similar convection is noted ne of the low, within 45
nm either side of a line from 11N103W to 14N107W. This low is
forecast to move wnw to near 12.5N106.5W late Sat, and near
13N110.5W late Sun. Environmental conditions are becoming
favorable for tropical cyclone development. 

...TROPICAL WAVES..

A tropical wave is analyzed n of 05N along 86W and has been
moving w at near 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed from 03n to 10N e of 90W.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N90W to an embedded 1008 mb
low pres at 10N105.5W, to the newly formed tropical depression
at 14.7N116.9W, to an embedded 1013 mb low at 16N132W to a 1001 mb
low at 13N135W. The ITCZ develops sw of the low at 13N135W and
continues sw to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed within 210 nm either side of a
line from 06N77W to 06N94W to 14N100W.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
120 nm of the surface low at 16N132W. Scattered moderate is
noted within 240 nm of the surface low at 13N135W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N e of 120W:

A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the
Baja California Peninsula and northern Gulf of California this
weekend supporting gentle to moderate southerly flow across the
Gulf waters, except moderate to occasionally fresh southerly
breeze across the gulf waters to the n of 30N.

A w to e orientated ridge extends across the waters between 114-
120W with gentle anticyclonic winds observed around the ridge,
except moderate nw flow is observed n of 30N w of 118W where 5-8
ft seas are expected to continue into Sat morning. By then, a
weak trough will pass e across the waters n of 30N on Sat, with
the winds and seas diminishing and subsiding. 

Tropical Depression Two-E currently near 14.7N 116.9W is forecast
to strengthen to a minimal tropical storm and move northwestward
across the far sw waters near 15N120W on Sat and early Sat night,
accompanied by seas to 12 ft.

S of 15N e of 120W: 

See special features section above for details on the newly formed
tropical Depression Two-E and a surface low at 10N105.5W. 

Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are expected across the Gulf
of Papagayo overnight, with these conditions spreading w across
the waters from 09.5N to 12N between 86W and 92W early Sat, with
seas building to 10 ft. Only fresh drainage winds are expected
on Sat night.

W of 120W:

See special features section above for details on newly formed
tropical depression Two-E that will intensify to a tropical storm
and move into the area w of 120W on Sun.

A 1011 mb low low pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough at
13N135W, and a 1013 mb low is now analyzed near 16N132W with fresh
ne winds and 6-8 ft seas within 180 nm w of these two lows.
The lows are forecast to weaken with the associated conditions 
shift w of 140W on Sun night.

A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters to the n of 15N w of
120W. Combined seas of 7-10 ft, primarily due to ne swell, is
observed n of 26N, and is expected to propagate s to along 20N
on Sun before beginning to subside. 

$$
Nelson