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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221535
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1505 UTC Tue Aug 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane Kenneth is centered near 20.9N 133.1W at 1500 UTC, 
moving NNW at 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure 
is 984 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 
kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection are within 90 
nm of the center. Kenneth is forecast to weaken steadily the next
couple of days and dissipate into a remnant low on Thursday. 
Please refer to the National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory 
under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas 
Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more 
information.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 102W from 18N southward to 12N, moving 
westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from
16N to 20N between 100W and 107W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends westward from 09N78W to a 1009 mb low
pres near 10N91W to 11N110W to 06N135W. The monsoon trough then
resumes near 15N134W to beyond 12N140W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is within 300 nm of the axis between 87W and
107W, and from 06N to 12N between 111W and 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough will prevail across the Gulf of California 
through the end of the week with a weak surface low developing 
at times along the trough north of 29N. The pressure gradient 
between this elongated area of low pressure and surface ridging 
W of the area will allow moderate NW winds off Baja California 
through early Friday, then decreasing to a gentle breeze. Seas 
will remain between 3 and 5 ft north of 15N through the next
several days. Increasing southwesterly winds to the south of the
monsoon trough may bring 6 to 8 ft swell to the offshore waters 
south of 15N late this weekend into early next week. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh northerly winds will funnel into the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through this evening with seas peaking near 
7 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough 
through Friday while moderate to locally fresh WSW winds are 
expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Cross
equatorial swell of 6 to 8 ft will propagate across the area
beginning on Saturday.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure west of northern Baja California near 31N126W will 
weaken to a trough later today, then persist over the waters W 
of northern Baja into Thu. High pressure centered near 34N145W 
will tighten the pressure gradient over NW waters as weakening 
tropical cyclone Kenneth moves northward, and help increase seas 
over a large portion of the area N of 25N and W of 135W through
Thursday. N swell generated by strong northerly winds N of the 
area has increased seas to 7 to 9 ft north of 28N between 128W 
and 137W. These conditions are merging with swell generated by 
Kenneth. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast 
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Moderate to 
fresh southerly flow is forecast south of the monsoon trough 
through Friday. By Saturday, models are forecasting a slight 
intensification of the southerly flow south of the monsoon trough
east of 120W. This may build seas to 7 to 8 ft from about 05N to
12N, east of 120W Saturday through early next week. 

$$
Latto

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 22-Aug-2017 15:35:48 UTC