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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232122
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2122 UTC Wed Aug 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth is centered near 25.4N 135.6W at 
2100 UTC, moving NNW at 09 knots. The estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts
to 45 kt. Convection has nearly dissipated as the system has 
moved over cooler waters, with some scattered moderate convection
lingering within 120 nm of the northern semicircle. Gale-force 
winds are expected within 160 nm to the N of the low center as 
the low moves NNW. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center 
Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, 
and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 
KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis along 94W-95W from 05N to 16N. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 08N to
13N between 95W and 102W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 010N85W to 11N110W to a 1012 mb 
low near 10N130.5W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 150 NM of either side of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough remains across the Gulf of California. This
feature will stay in the area through the end of the week with a
weak surface low developing at times along the trough north of 
29N. Fresh winds will pulse off the coast of Baja California Sur 
from 24N to 27N during this time frame. Elsewhere, the pressure 
gradient between this trough and surface ridging W of the area 
will allow moderate NW winds off Baja California through Friday 
evening, then decreasing to a gentle breeze through Monday night.
Seas will remain between 3 and 5 ft during this period. Increasing
southwesterly winds to the south of the area may bring 6 to 9 ft
swell to the offshore waters south of 15N Saturday through Tuesday.
Fresh to strong SW winds will accompany the swell starting Sunday
evening through Tuesday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough 
through the weekend while moderate to fresh WSW winds are 
expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Cross
equatorial swell of 6 to 8 ft will propagate across the area 
beginning on Friday, persisting through the weekend and early 
next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between the high pressure northwest of the
area and the remnants of Kenneth is producing fresh northwest 
winds and a broad area of 8 to 10 ft seas N of 17N and W of 132W,
far removed from the system. These winds and seas will shift 
north to northwest with what is left of Kenneth through Saturday.
Moderate to locally fresh NNE to NE flow is forecast elsewhere N
of the monsoon trough and W of 130W, and moderate NW flow east 
of 130W. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is forecast south of 
the monsoon trough through Friday. By Saturday, models are 
forecasting a slight intensification of the southerly flow south 
of the monsoon trough east of 130W. This should build seas to 7 
to 9 ft from about 05N to 15N, east of 130W Saturday through 
Tuesday. 

$$

ERA


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 23-Aug-2017 21:23:13 UTC