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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING 

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT 
CONTINUES TO SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT MINIMAL STORM FORCE...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO 
GALE FORCE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT 
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH WINDS BELOW GALE BY AFTERNOON. 
THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG-
PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 
FT NEAR 06N105W LATE THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15 KT ARE 
THEN EXPECTED EACH DAY...AND LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OF 10-20 
KT IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.       

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N88W TO 
04N98W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 03N107W 
TO 05N125W TO 05N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 00N110W IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ BEWTEEN 80W AND 90W. 

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO SOUTH OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA NEAR 17N110W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM 
AROUND 0430 UTC INDICATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW ALONG 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
1004 MB LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. 

SIMILARLY STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED FARTHER 
NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THESE WINDS WILL NOT 
REACH SOUTH OF 30N...SWELL TO 9 FT GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL 
PROPAGATE SOUTH OF 30N THROUGH THU REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 28N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 125W.

ASCAT SATELLITE DATA FROM AROUND 06 UTC INDICATED FRESH TO 
OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS COVERING 
THE AREA FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 125W. ALTIMETER DATA INDICATED 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. TRADE WINDS CONVERGENCE ALONG 
THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 
125W AND 130W.

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO JUST 
EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII NEAR 20N150W WILL SHIFT 
EASTWARD N OF 20N...REACHING THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE SURFACE 
RIDGE AND ALLOW THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO RELAX SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO 
20 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 16-Apr-2014 09:11:39 UTC