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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC MON FEB 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AS A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS CONTINUES
TO GENERATE STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 13.5N96W PER A
RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 08/0320 UTC. WIND RETRIEVALS OF 30-45
KT WERE CAPTURED WITH SEAS WITHIN THIS ZONE ESTIMATED TO BE AS
HIGH AS 17 FT. EXPECT THE STRONG GULF OF MEXICO RIDGING TO
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG GALES GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO MINIMAL GALES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SEAS JUST DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 12-13 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
STRONG REINFORCING RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT TO PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM FORCE
WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO AROUND 22 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH TO STRONG GALES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST AT
MODERATE TO STRONG GALES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL
EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH
SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT TO CREATE HIGH
MIXED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
REMAINS TIGHT THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND IS LENDING ITSELF TO
ENHANCE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TO 35 KT AND POSSIBLY 40 KT AT
THE PEAK OF THE EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW. BRIEF GALES ARE
ALSO SUGGESTED BY COMPUTER MODELS EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH THE GULF
OF FONSECA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MAINLY
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. GALES
ARE THEN FORECAST TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP
WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS
THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 88W-110W
THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N91W TO 02N106W TO 04N121W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 135W
AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W
TONIGHT...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF
115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. MAX SEAS ARE NEAR 6-7 FT. EXPECT THESE N-NW WINDS TO
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF AND N OF 30N THROUGH
LATE MON. 

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO
MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 14N GENERALLY BETWEEN 115W AND 130W...WHERE
SEAS ARE RUNNING 8-11 FT. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT
GENERALLY S OF 13N W OF 110W. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
30N140W WITH A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 08/0554 UTC INDICATING
STRONG TO NEAR GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 26N W OF 137W. NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS ALSO IMPACTING THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT AS THE FRONT REMAINS
IN FAR NW PORTION MON...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ALONG
133W TUE.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9-11 FT NEAR 06N81W ON MON. AN AREA OF 25-30 KT
WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA
EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED.

$$
HUFFMAN

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Page last modified: Monday, 08-Feb-2016 09:42:35 UTC