| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241603
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Feb 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

There is no ITCZ currently over the forecast waters north of the 
equator. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Earlier ship observations and scatterometer passes indicated 
northwest winds 20 to 25 kt off the coast of Baja California.
Concurrent altimeter passes indicated seas of 8 to 11 ft in this
area as well. Recent observations from La Paz in Baja California
Sur indicated northerly winds to 20 to 25 kt, indicative of at
least 20 kt across the southern portions of the Gulf of 
California. The fresh strong northerly winds are result of a
tight pressure gradient between 1025 mb high pressure centered
west of the area and deep 1001 mb low pressure centered over
north central Mexico. Winds will gradually diminish off the Baja
California peninsula through late today as the high pressure
shifts slowly eastward. Seas will subside below 8 ft tonight as
the winds diminish. Strong winds are anticipated in the 
southwest entrances to the Gulf of California off Cabo Pulmo late
today and tonight, then will diminish below 20 kt through late
Saturday. Weak high pressure will remain over the area into early
next week, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.
Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the region Monday
night and Tuesday, allowing a slight increase in winds.

High pressure building over the northern Gulf of Mexico Saturday
will allow a brief pulse of fresh to strong gap winds into the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle mainly onshore winds will prevail through 
Saturday. Winds will freshen and shift offshore along the 
Papagayo region and Gulf of Panama Saturday night through Sunday
night as fresh easterly trade winds return to the western 
Caribbean. The Papagayo gap winds may become strong Monday night
as trade winds increase across the southwest Caribbean Sea.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Seas continue to subside as an earlier round of northwest swell
decays below 8 ft across the region. Earlier altimeter data and 
reports from buoy 43010 near 10N125W show seas just below 8 ft 
over most of the region east of 125W. Moderate breezes cover the 
entire area south of a 1025 mb high pressure area centered north 
of the region. Southerly winds will increase today in the 
northwest corner of the discussion area ahead of a cold front 
expected to pass east of 140W tonight. Another group of northwest
swell reaching 8 to 10 ft will accompany the front, although 
most wave guidance indicates this northwest swell above 8 ft will
remain north of 25N and west of 135W through Sunday as the swell
subsides. Looking ahead, a reinforcing boundary will move west 
of 140W early next week, bringing another push of northwest swell
into the northwest portions of the discussion area. Building 
high pressure north of the area behind this boundary will allow 
fresh trade winds deeper into the tropics from 05N to 10N west of
125W with seas reaching 8 ft in a mix of local trade wind 
related wave and longer period northwest swell.

$$
TAFB


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 24-Feb-2017 16:03:33 UTC