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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040346
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 04.5N91W TO 03N100W TO  
07.5N110W TO 04N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM E AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF LOW 
PRES NEAR 04.5N91W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION 
OF THE SW U.S. NEAR 35N113.5W ACROSS N BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
15N125W AND HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY SE THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS 
TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT THROUGH 
MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SUB TROPICS...AND EXTENDED 
ACROSS NW MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH 26.5N109W TO 20N113W TO 
15N120W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS DEEP LAYERED AND HAS GENERATED A 
1012 MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N118W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS 
FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MOST 
ENERGY LIFTING OUT TO THE NE...AND LEAVE A BROAD FLAT TROUGH IN 
ITS WAKE BY FRI NIGHT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED TWO AREAS OF FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 08N TO 17N W OF 133W...WHERE THE 
TRADEWINDS ARE KICKING UP STRONG CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE 
ALONG THE ITCZ...AND THE OTHER N OF 26N BETWEEN 121W AND 
125W...IN NW TO N WINDS OCCURRING W THROUGH SW OF THE SURFACE 
LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND REACH THE MANZANILLO AREA THU EVENING 
BEFORE BECOMING ILL DEFINED. THE AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL 
SHIFT W OF 140W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED. ELSEWHERE AT 
THE SURFACE...1032 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 22N120W. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT 
EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH THE ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THU...AND INCREASE WINDS 20-30 KT THROUGH THE ENTIRE 
LENGTH OF THE GULF THU EVENING THROUGH FRI EVENING. 

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE 
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST 
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN 
THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE FALLEN TO 20 KT OR 
LESS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING QUICKLY. THE NEXT 
SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL BEGIN THU EVENING AS A STRONG 
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS 
QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE THU NIGHT...AND TO NEAR STORM 
FORCE BY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE... 
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT. 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE 
GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN 
EARLY THU BELOW 20 KT AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$ 
STRIPLING



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 04-Mar-2015 03:46:53 UTC