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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281526
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES ACROSS THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE. AS A RESULT...GALE 
FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
DOWNWIND TO NEAR 13N96W BASED ON THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER 
PASS. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF THE DAY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED 
ROPE CLOUD MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF WHICH LIKELY DELINEATES 
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT GAP WIND EVENT. WINDS WILL 
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR MINIMAL GALE FORCE TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY 
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THEN...WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE PULSE TO 25-30 KT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING... 
AND TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING WITH THE 
ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD COVERING THE WATERS 
FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W BY SUN MORNING WITH SEAS TO 
AROUND 9 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

VERY WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 05N103W TO 
04N120W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N120W TO 08N130W THEN RESUMES 
AT 06N135W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 101W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A 1032 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 35N136W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N115W. SOUTH OF THE 
RIDGE...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG 
THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADEWINDS FROM 12N 
TO 24N W OF 130W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8-11 FT IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES 
AND LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS. AN ALTIMETER 
PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE SEA HEIGHTS. THE AERIAL 
EXTENT OF THE TRADES WILL DECREASE ON SUN AS HIGH PRES MOVES NE 
AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP FROM 
FROM 12N131W TO 06N132W. THIS TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM E OF TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N TO 12N. THIS 
FEATURE WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. BROAD AND 
WEAK MONSOONAL FLOW IS NOTED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS MAINLY BETWEEN 
103W AND 120W AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND MEXICAN 
COASTLINES THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SWELL EVENT IS LIKELY 
GENERATING VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL WAVES...AND DANGEROUS 
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THIS GAP WIND 
REGION BY EARLY SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD 
FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS. WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN ACROSS THIS AREA EARLY MON 
MORNING. 

$$ 
GR


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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-Mar-2015 15:26:59 UTC