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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LONG DURATION 
MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 1632 UTC 
ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED MAX WINDS AROUND 35 KT AS FAR AS 120 NM S-SW 
OF THE COAST. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SAT...WITH WINDS IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST IN 
RETURN FLOW. THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP 
BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY SAT EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF 8-
10 FT SEAS IN COMBINED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL AND NE SWELL FROM 
THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO CONTINUES TO SPAN ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 109W. THIS AREA 
OF HIGHER SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD SUN AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N90W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W 
AND 122W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 19N 
NORTHWARD AND FROM 116W EASTWARD...INCLUDING OVER NW MEXICO AND 
THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES. RADARS OVER THE SW 
UNITED STATES SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BORDER W 
OF 105W. THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO 
MEXICO. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE A FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. 

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 35N132W THROUGH 32N132W...THEN SPLITS IN TWO WITH ONE 
AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 18N117W AND ANOTHER EXTENDING SW THROUGH 
25N140W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE 
TRADES S OF THESE RIDGE AXES OVER WATERS JUST N OF THE ITCZ AND 
W OF 120W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS SHOULD LINGER OVER W 
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DRIVING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FAR WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN 
THIS AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...BUT A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PULSE TO NEAR GALE STRENGTH WITH 
THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND IN THE LATE NIGHT 
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION...SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO IS COMBINING WITH SEAS GENERATED 
FROM THE GALE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT THE SWELL FROM 
PAPAGAYO WILL SUBSIDE AND SHRINK EASTWARD AS THE WIND SPEEDS 
DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL 
AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED AS FAR 
S AS 03N.

$$ 
SCHAUER



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Page last modified: Friday, 30-Jan-2015 22:01:29 UTC