AXPZ20 KNHC 261002
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
716 UTC Tue Jul 26 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0600Z UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Hurricane Georgette is centered at 18.5N 128.5W at 0900 UTC,
moving NW or 315 degrees at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds have
decreased further to 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is at 985 mb. An eye is no longer evident in the
most recent satellite images of Georgette. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is present within 45 nm of the center.
Georgette continues to weaken this morning and this trend is
expected to accelerate during the next 24 hours. As Georgette
moves NW over cooler waters, it will eventually become a post
tropical low on Thursday. Refer to the latest NHC forecast
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more
Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 21.1N 115.7W at 0900 UTC,
moving slowly WNW, or 285 degrees at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds
have increased to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure has dropped to 997 mb. Convection associated
with Frank has been fluctuating in intensity during the past 12
hours. Convection has recently flared near the center, where
numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is present
within 60 nm in the NE semicircle. Scattered moderate convection
is found within 90 nm in the SW semicircle. Frank will continue
to move WNW and is not expected to change much in intensity today.
Frank will begin to weaken tonight and move NW before becoming a
post-tropical remnant low early on Friday. Strong S swell from
Frank continues to impact the central Pacific coast of Baja
California, generating rough and dangerous surf along the local
regional coastlines. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.
Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated with these systems.
A tropical wave N of 09N along 100W is triggering scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection from 06N to 14N between
97W and 103W. This wave will shift W and continue to produce
active weather in its vicinity.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from near 08N78W to 09N91W to 09N105W.
The ITCZ continues from 09N105W to 11N111W to 08N126W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 09N
between 83W and 97W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
from 05N to 11N between 112W and 127W.
North of 15N and east of 120W:
Tropical Storm Frank continues to move slowly WNW away from
Socorro and the Revillagigedo Islands into the open eastern
Pacific ocean. S swell associated with Frank impacting the Mexican
coasts and waters between Los Cabos and the entrance to the Gulf
of California continue to fade this evening. the S swell and is
now peaking across central portions along the Pacific coast of
Baja California. As Frank tracks farther NW, associated SE swell
will mix with N swell in the waters of Baja California Norte today
through mid week.
South of 15N and east of 120W:
Moderate to locally fresh E winds are expected across and just
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours
through the end of the week. The winds will be augmented by
nocturnal drainage flow.
West of 120W:
High pres is building N of the area and into the subtropical
areas N of 25N in the wake of Estelle, which has dissipated W of
the area. This is allowing a modest increase in trade-wind flow
farther south in the deep tropics west of 130W, supporting an area
of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ. However,
Georgette will track NW and weaken the ridge again during the next
couple of days, causing trade winds in this region to diminish.
N swell to 10 ft generated by strong winds off the California
coast will continue to propagate into the waters W of 120W and
N of 20N into mid week, and mix with SE swell generated by
Georgette. Frank will add more SE swell as it crosses W of 120W