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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300150
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Mar 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0110 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Northerly Swell: A cold front moving into northern waters 
followed by subsequent surface troughs will be accompanied by 
reinforcing sets of northerly swell. Seas of 12 ft are greater
are encroaching on 30N between 129W and 135W per recent altimeter
data, and will continue spreading SE. Seas of 12 ft or greater
will reach to 24N between 117W and 137W this weekend with seas
peaking around 17 ft along 30N. Wave periods will be 12 to 14 
seconds. Very hazardous marine conditions will occur with these 
seas over the open waters, and also at the coast of Baja 
California Norte, likely resulting in dangerous surf conditions. 
Please consult products from your national weather service for 
more details on conditions near the coast.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on
this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from northern Colombia near 06N77W
to 03N83W. The ITCZ extends from 03N83W to 07N105W, then resumes
W of a surface trough from 07N110W to 04N125W to 02N140W.  
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 07N
between 93W and 101W, and from 00N to 10N between 106W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front is well W of Baja California Norte while a
pre-frontal trough in the northern Gulf of California is
supporting fresh to strong S-SW winds N of 30N. NW swell of 7 to
10 ft outruns the cold front and is moving into the Baja
California Norte waters. Fresh N winds are in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, while remnant 7 to 9 ft NE swell from an earlier 
gale event is across the offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec zone. A 
weak pressure pattern prevails across the remainder of the waters
with mainly light to gentle winds, except moderate in the 
remainder of the Gulf of California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across
the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, a cold front and subsequent surface troughs 
will pass over the offshore waters of Baja California and Gulf of
California through the weekend, bringing with them increasing 
winds and large NW swell, including fresh to strong winds ahead 
of the front in the northern Gulf of California tonight through 
early Mon, and offshore Baja California Norte. This swell could 
generate very rough seas at the outer offshore waters north of 
Punta Eugenia Sat night through Sun night. Ridging will build in
behind the front/troughs with moderate to fresh, locally strong
NW-N winds developing from the central Gulf of California to 
near Cabo Corrientes by the middle of next week. Looking ahead, 
near gale force northerly winds may develop in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong gap winds are ongoing in the gulfs of 
Papagayo and Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail.
Seas are 3 to 5 ft for waters including and south of Costa Rica,
with 5 to 8 ft seas to the north. These higher seas are being
caused by swell generated from earlier gales in the Gulf of
Tehunatepec combined with wind waves from the Gulf of Papagayo. 

For the forecast, elevated seas through the outer waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador generated by earlier gales in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec will subside later tonight. Winds will pulse to 
fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through early Mon, with 
seas occasionally to 8 ft. Similar conditions are expected in the
Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula through Sat night,
then moderate to fresh there into early Mon. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on upcoming
large northerly swell over the northern waters.

A cold front is moving across the northern waters this evening,
extending from 30N126W to 27N140W. Fresh to strong winds are N 
of 27N between 125W and 136W. Associated NW-N swell outrun the 
front as described above. Elsewhere across waters N of the ITCZ, 
weather is dominated by a weakening high pressure centered N of 
the region. Mainly gentle to locally moderate winds prevail away 
from the cold front area. Seas across these waters average 5 to 7
ft.

For the forecast, aside from the cold front, troughs, and
associated large northerly swell mentioned above, the ridge will
continue to weaken and drift south through the weekend, leading
to lesser tradewinds. In the wake of the fronts and troughs, the
ridge will rebuild next week, freshening trades. Trades may
further increase to fresh to strong my the middle of next week. 
The aforementioned northerly swells will support seas of 7 to 10 
ft across the majority of the waters N of the ITCZ early next 
week, then become focused across the fresh trades by mid-week.

$$
Lewitsky

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Page last modified: Saturday, 30-Mar-2024 01:50:37 UTC