Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 191557

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Nov 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1515 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong northerly drainage 
winds will begin around noon, quickly increase to minimal gale 
force into the late afternoon, and gradually strengthen to at 
least 40 kt tonight. The sea heights are forecast to build to a 
max of 18 ft downstream of the gulf waters near 14N95.5W late 
tonight. Winds will diminish to less than gale force on Mon 
afternoon, and gradually diminish to 20 kt or less by sunrise on 
Tuesday. The associated NE swell will propagate SW mixing with 
long-period cross-equatorial swell, resulting in an area of 8 ft 
and greater seas of across the waters from roughly 09N to 13N 
between 94W and 103W on Mon night, with a small area of 8 ft 
seas subsiding from 09N to 11N between 102W and 104W on Tue at 
sunrise. Strong N winds are expected to resume on Wed at 
sunrise, with gale conditions from Wed at sunset until 
Friday at noon. 


The monsoon trough passes through Panama near 08N82W, and it 
continues to 07N86W 08N96W. The ITCZ is along 08N125W 09N120W 
10N140W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong 
within 270 nm to the N of the ITCZ between 113W and 126W, and 
within 120 nm to the S of the ITCZ between 113W and 126W.



Please read the Special Features paragraph for information about 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. 

A NW to SE orientated ridge just beyond 250 nm seaward will 
maintain moderate to locally fresh NW flow W of the Baja 
Peninsula through mid morning when the pressure gradient will 
relax, supporting moderate NW flow this afternoon through 
sunrise on Mon. Light N winds winds then are expected through 
Thu. A trough is forecast to form from the central Baja 
Peninsula southward, on Thu night and Fri, accompnaied by a 
light W to NW wind shift. Expect seas in the 4 to 7 ft range 
today, with these conditions resuming again late in the week, 
with 3 to 5 ft seas during early and mid part of the week.  

Gulf of California: Strong N winds expected to continue across 
the gulf waters N of 25N through the late afternoon hours. The 
pressure gradient will relax tonight with moderate NW flow 
forecast across the entire gulf waters at sunrise on Mon, then 
becoming light northerly flow by Mon evening.  Moderate to 
locally fresh NW flow will resume across the entire gulf on Tue 
and Wed, then diminishing some on Thu. 


Gulf of Papagayo:  Moderate to locally fresh NE drainage winds 
are forecast during the overnight hours tonight and on Mon 
night, then light drainage flow expected during the overnight 
hours through Thu night, with moderate to fresh nocturnal 
drainage resuming on Fri night.

Light and variable winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are expected 
elsewhere to the N of the monsoon trough which has been 
meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh 
southerly winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas, are forecast S of the 
monsoon trough this week.  


A NE to SW aligned ridge will meander from 32N124W to beyond 
20N140W for the next several days. Strong to occasionally near 
gale force southerly winds and 8 to 9 foot sea heights currently 
across the waters N of 28N W of 138W, will spread eastward and 
cover the area that is N of 25N W of 137W tonight with sea 
heigts to 11 feet, N of 23N W of 133W on Monday night with sea 
heights to 12 feet. The wind speeds will be fresh to locally 
strong on Tuesday night, with sea heights reaching 10 feet, N of 
24N W of 131W. Cold fronts will approach in a series, but they 
will stall just W of 140W through Tue night. Model guidance is 
suggesting a cold front will arrive at 32N138W late on Wed, and 
weaken and stall from 32N135W to 21N140W on Thu, with seas 
building 12 to 15 ft W of the front through Thu. 

Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow expected across the 
tropics N of the ITCZ and W of 120W through the middle of next 
week, with seas subsiding to 4 to 7 ft by this evening, with 
little change through mid week. Long period NW swell will 
propagate SE into the tropics w of 130W on Thu, and continue 
E across the tropical waters W of 120W late in the week.


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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Nov-2017 15:57:21 UTC