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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE NOV 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURE...    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS 
MOVING INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SHARP RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG AND E OF SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL 
IN EASTERN MEXICO. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS 
STARTING THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE 
BY SUNRISE WED. STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 
THU MORNING...DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE THU AFTERNOON...THEN BELOW 
GALE SAT AFTERNOON. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS BUILDING 
TO 23-25 FT WITH NE SWELL GREATER THAN 8 FT PROPAGATING WELL 
DOWNSTREAM FROM ITS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SOURCE REGION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 08N104W TO 
11N112W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N112W TO 08N129W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 97W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1640 UTC SHOWS 
20-30 KT N-NW WINDS N OF 22N W OF 108W INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
EXISTS DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND 
ALSO W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH RIDGING NOSING 
DOWN IN BETWEEN THE TROUGHS. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN 
THE GULF IS SPILLING OUT SOUTHWARD TO 22N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU MORNING. SEAS TO 10 FT IN THE SOUTHERN 
GULF WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY WED NIGHT.

A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION ARE CENTERED NEAR 35N128W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS 
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W. 

FRESH TO STRONG S-SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE FAR NW CORNER 
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING 140W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS 
THE FRONT WEAKENS WHILE MOVING JUST SE OF 30N140W ON WED WITH 
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE NW WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER  
OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. ASSOCIATED NW SWELL TO 
12 FT WILL COVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 30N133W TO 19N140W BY 
THU MORNING.

MIXED SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT COVERS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 26N112W TO 13N120W TO 07N135W TO 
07N140W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT DURING THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS WITH THE ONLY REMAINING AREA OF SEAS 8-9 FT BECOMING 
CONFINED TO THE W CENTRAL WATERS N OF THE ITCZ BY THU MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD IN 
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS 
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY THU MORNING THROUGH 
THU EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT THU. 

$$
MUNDELL



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 25-Nov-2014 21:45:22 UTC