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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190339
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Mar 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build 
behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico early this 
week. This pattern, along with local drainage flow effects, will 
support gap winds to minimal gale force to pulse across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec late Mon evening into early Tue morning. And 
pulse to minimal gale-force winds again late Tue evening into Wed
morning. Expect sustained winds to briefly reach 35 kt during 
this times, with seas building as high as 10 ft downstream across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Tue through Wed.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 04N95W to 03N105W. The 
ITCZ continues from 03N105W to 01N121W to 03N130W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 90W and 95W,
and from 04N to 06N between 130W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information about a
gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A surface ridge extends from north of the area off the U.S. west
coast, to off Baja California to off Cabo Corrientes. An earlier
scatterometer satellite pass depicted moderate to fresh NW winds
across the central and southern Gulf of California, funneling 
between this ridge and lower pressure over central Mexico. 
Elsewhere, this pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate breezes
across the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate combined seas 
prevail everywhere, including most of the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, as described in the Special Features section, 
near-gale to gale force gap will start overnight over the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec, associated with a cold front moving into southern
Mexico. Winds will pulse to gale force again on Tue night. These
gap winds and associated rough seas will diminish across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Wed. Farther north, expect moderate 
to fresh NW winds from the central Gulf of California to Cabo 
Corrientes to persist through Tue as the high pressure builds 
west of the region and low pressure deepens over central Mexico. 
These winds will diminish through late Tue. Beyond Tue, gentle to
moderate winds and seas 4 to 6 ft will prevail. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

An earlier scatterometer data confirmed the presence moderate to
fresh NE gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. This gap wind 
event is due to a combination of local drainage effects and a 
relatively tight gradient related to high pressure north of the 
area. Seas within this winds are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere seas 3 to 
5 ft seas prevail except, seas to 8 ft persist close to the south
of the offshore waters around the Galapagos in the southern 
swell.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
support pulses of fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo
region through mid week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas
will continue elsewhere through the forecast period. Farther 
south, southerly swell reaching 8 ft will persist through Tue 
evening from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands.  

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1009 mb broad area of low pressure is located near 24N138W. 
This low is associated with a broad, negatively tilted mid to 
upper level trough reaching from northwest of the region, where 
related divergent flow aloft continue to support clusters of 
showers and thunderstorms southeast of the center of the low
pressure, from 18N to 23N between 125W and 133W. Earlier 
scatterometer data depicted localized near- gale force to gale 
winds in this area of convection. Broad surface ridging is in 
place elsewhere north of 20N, supporting mostly gentle breezes 
across the region, except for moderate trade wind flow over 
tropical waters from 08N to 16N. NW swell of 6 to 7 ft covers 
most of the region west of 105W, with seas to 9 ft in the area of
moderate trade winds, and farther south of the equator where a 
component of SE swell is adding to the mix. Combined seas of 5 to
7 ft in mixed NW and S swell are evident east of 105W.

For the forecast, low pressure west of the area along the 
surface trough will move eastward tonight, with winds increasing
to moderate to fresh along 140W and north of 20N. The low may 
linger through the early part of the week before weakening and 
opening to a trough. Shorter period wind waves created by 
moderate to fresh swell from 05N to 15N west of 110W will mix 
with the longer period NW swell propagating across the region to 
maintain 8 to 9 ft combined seas in the area of moderate to fresh
trade winds through mid week. Farther south, the southerly swell
will subside Tue night.

$$
Christensen

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-Mar-2024 03:39:22 UTC