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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N TO 11N ALONG 93W MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 240 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 04N87W TO 09N93W...AND ALSO FROM 
03N TO 10N W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO 98W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 14N ALONG 107W MOVING W AT 
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 
104W AND 110W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N102W AND IS MOVING W 
AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. WINDS NEAR THE 
BROAD LOW ARE MAINLY FRESH OR LESS HOWEVER AN AREA OF 8-9 FT 
SEAS IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SE 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH 10N109W BY 24 
HOURS THEN WILL DECREASE IN SPEED SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 
11N112W BY 48 HOURS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N119W MOVING W AROUND 5-10 
KT. A TROUGH IS ACCOMPANYING THIS LOW EXTENDING FROM 13N118W TO 
LOW TO 06N119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 05N 
BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE 
LOW IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH WINDS ALONG 
WITH AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 123W AND 
128W BY 48 HOURS AS IT REACHES NEAR 09N124W. NO DEVELOPMENT OF 
THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 12.5N131W MOVING WSW AROUND 
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
12N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 127W AND 131W. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE NW 
SIDE OF THE LOW IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY FRESH WINDS 
WHILE AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED SWELL IS WITHIN 210 NM IN 
THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL REACH NEAR 11N133W BY 24 
HOURS...THEN TO NEAR 10.5N136W BY 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE CURRENTLY NOT NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1020 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 29N128W 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 18N105W. A 
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM NEAR 
30N133W TO 23N140W. SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE 
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS N 
OF 20N W OF 110W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W DURING THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS WESTWARD 
REACHING 27N132W BY 48 HOURS WHILE BECOMING 1022 MB WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN JUST ENOUGH BY WED 
NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF EPISODE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SEAS 
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD TO 8 FT BY SUNRISE THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E FLOW IS ANTICIPATED 
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH 48 HOURS 
WITH THE AIDE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WITH SEAS BRIEFLY 
BUILDING TO 8 FT DURING EACH EVENT.

$$ 
LEWITSKY

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 26-May-2015 21:33:12 UTC