Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 280247

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun May 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.


A tropical wave has an axis that extends from 06N92W to 15N93W, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection associated with this
wave has diminished in coverage during the evening hours. Latest
satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection to the southeast of the axis from 04N to 07N between
90W and 92W. The wave remains under a broad inverted trough at 
700 mb, and is embedded within a large area of very deep
atmospheric moisture per latest TPW animation. Convection is
expected to increase later tonight into Sunday morning with 
the wave. It is forecast to continue in a west to west-northwest
motion through Monday.

A tropical wave has an axis that extends along 99W from 06N 
to 15N, moving westward at about 10 kt. The TPW animation 
depicts the wave to be embedded within an atmospheric environment
of very deep moisture. Both model data and satellite water vapor
suggest that a sharp 700 mb trough is located within the general
vicinity of this wave. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection from 06N to 10N between 
96W and 100W, and also within 30 nm of a line from 09N99W to


The Monsoon Tough axis extends from far NW Colombia to 
09N78W to 09N901. It resumes to the west of the western most 
tropical wave described above at a location near 09N101W to
09N110W. The ITCZ axis then begins at 09N110W, and continues to 
08N130W to beyond 07N140W. Other than convection associated with
the tropical waves described in the tropical waves section, 
scattered strong convection is within 45 nm of 09N86W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 10N to 13N 
between 109W and 113W.



A trough extends from a 1007 mb low over far southeastern Nevada
south to across the northern portion of the Gulf of California 
and to near 27N110W. Winds and seas have diminished over 
the northern portion of the Gulf have diminished, with seas down
to around 2 ft and winds light and variable there. Gentle to 
moderate winds are expected over the Gulf the remainder of the 
weekend and into early next week. Low pressure will develop over 
the western United states during the middle portion of next eek, 
supporting moderate to fresh winds over the northern Gulf. 

High pressure west of the region will support moderate to fresh
northwest winds offshore Baja California the next several days 
with seas generally ranging from 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly
light to gentle winds are expected over the Mexico offshore
waters south of Baja California through the middle of next week.
The only exception to the winds will be along a pair of tropical
waves that will pass along and south of the Tehuantepec area 
with associated scattered showers and thunderstorms along with 
brief gusty moderate to fresh east to southeast winds. A broad 
area of low pressure may develop to the southwest of southeastern
Mexico and Gulf of Tehuantepec region during the middle portion 
of next week.


The Monsoon Trough will continue to intersect the region from 
west to east the next several days, supporting convection mainly 
north of around 03N. North of the trough axis mainly light to 
gentle winds will prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft. To the south of
the trough axis, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest 
winds can be expected with seas of 5 to 7 ft. 


A weak ridge is forecast to meander over the northwestern waters
near 30N133W over the weekend and into early next week which 
will continue to support gentle to moderate winds over the 
northern waters west of the Mexico offshore waters with seas of 5
to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds prevail over 
the waters south of 20N, and also to the north of the ITCZ and 
Monsoon Trough. These winds will support seas of 6 to 7 ft. 
Another area of high pressure, a bit stronger, is forecast to 
build west over the northwest waters beginning on Tuesday. The 
pressure gradient between it and lower pressure near the ITCZ
should allow for northeast trades to increase to 20 kt, with
locally winds to 25 kt from 07N to 15N west of 130W. These winds
should build the seas up to 8 to 9 ft there before winds 
diminish Wednesday. Seas are expected to linger up to 8 ft in 
mixed swell late Wednesday through Thursday night


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Page last modified: Sunday, 28-May-2017 02:47:27 UTC