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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160310
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0110 UTC Sat Dec 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front moving is moving 
southward across the western Gulf of Mexico. The prefrontal
trough is just east of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, which has
helped funnel winds through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Winds have increased to near gale force over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. The cold front will reach the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec later tonight. Cool and dense air will funnel 
through the Chivela pass will further increase winds to gale 
force. The front will weaken Saturday, which will diminish winds
funneling across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This will keep this 
gale force gap wind event brief as winds are expected to diminish
below gale force by Sat afternoon. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 07N91W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N91W to 06N100W to 11N130W to 10N140W. No 
significant convection is observed near the ITCZ, but scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 104W and 
114W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: A cold front will move into the northern 
Gulf Sat, before stalling and dissipating over the central Gulf 
Sun. Winds over the northern Gulf will shift SW early Sat ahead 
of the front, as associated low pressure deepens over the lower 
Colorado River basin. The main issue by Sat night will be the 
possibility of strong W to NW winds over the northern Gulf as the
low pressure shifts eastward into the Sonora Desert. While the 
fetch across the northern Gulf will be to limited to develop 
large seas, mariners should be aware of the possibility of sudden
strong winds through low lying areas of Baja California Norte 
through early Sun. Winds diminish through early next week after 
the low pressure dissipates.

A cold front will move through the waters off Baja California 
Norte through early Sat followed by strong NW winds and seas 
building to 8 to 12 ft by late Sat. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will cover
most of the waters beyond 60 nm of the Baja coast through early 
next week in NW swell. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and 3 
to 5 ft will persist along the coast of Mexico outside of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week.

Please see Special Features section for more information on the
latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning. Another gale force gap 
wind event is possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec on 
Wednesday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are expected to strengthen across the Gulf of Papagayo Sat
night. Fresh N winds will funnel into the Gulf of Panama through
late this morning. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail from 15N to 21N west of 135W.
Moderate to fresh winds prevails elsewhere over the forecast 
waters north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. Seas associated
with a fresh pulse of NW swell are reaching near 14 ft in the 
area of strong trades W of 135W. Seas will slowly subside as the
swell propagates southeast the next few days. A cold front will 
move into the far northern waters Saturday. This will usher in 
another set of northerly swell into the area. 

$$
AL