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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY  
THROUGH 1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N105W IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE BY FRI MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW INTO A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND SCATTEROMETER 
DATA AT 0340 UTC SHOWED 20-25 KT SW WINDS DISPLACED 150-240 NM 
SE OF THE CIRC CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS 
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND.    

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 04-12N ALONG 95W HAS BEEN MOVING 
W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N119W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE WEST OF 
THE LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF 11N123W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 
KT WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH COMBINED 
SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W 
AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. 

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N131W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. THE PRES 
GRADIENT SUPPORTS NE 15-20 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM NW OF 
THE LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN 
THE EASTERN PAC. BROAD AREA UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALLOWING 
RANDOMLY SPACED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS 
THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 03N TO 14N E OF 101W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 105W AND 126W. 

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 
27N129W PREVAILS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF 
110W. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W 
TO 22N143W BISECTS THE RIDGE IN FAR NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL 
WEAKEN FURTHER AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH 
THROUGH THU NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W. 

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS 
PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT NO 
LONGER SHOWS WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT...AND ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 8 FT AS A RESULT. THE LIKELIHOOD 
OF ANY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 20-25 KT N WIND EVENT APPEARS LOWER 
AS WELL. LATEST GFS SHOWS MAX WINDS ONLY 10-15 KT THU AND FRI.

$$ 
MUNDELL

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-May-2015 15:25:36 UTC