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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302152
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Apr 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough axis extends from 10N84W to 08N98W to 07N106W
to 04N116W. The ITCZ axis extends from 04N116W to 03N125W to 
04N133W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 04N to 08N between 84W and 90W. Scattered strong 
convection is within 240 nm north of the axis between 97W and
101W, within 120 nm north of the axis between 101W and 105W, and 
within 120 nm north and 60 nm south of the axis between 112W and
118W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is seen
within 60 nm of the axis between 105W and 107W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the axis between
123W and 127W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Latest Ascat data and a few ship observations indicate gentle to
moderate winds northerly winds off the coast of Baja California 
Norte with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6 to 
8 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula, 5 to 7 ft off 
the remainder of the coast of Mexico, and 1 to 3 ft over the 
Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the 
Gulf of California while gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
over the remainder of the forecast waters through Thursday. In
the long term, northerly winds will begin to increase over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning late on Thursday night, leading 
to the start of the next expected gale force gap wind event 
expected to begin early on Friday. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Active convection in the form numerous showers and thunderstorms
will continue over the region generally south of 10N, including 
over the coastal and inland sections of much of Central America 
and Colombia through early this week. This persistent activity 
may lead to localized flooding over some areas of these 
locations. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected through 
early next week. Long period southwest swell producing seas in 
the 5 to 7 ft range will persist over these offshore waters 
through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Nearly stationary high pressure of 1034 mb centered north of the
area near 36N135W extends a ridge southeastward to near 27N127W 
to near 21N118W. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the ITCZ. A decaying
area of combined seas in the 6 to 8 ft range due to mixed northwest
and southwest remains to the north of 25N between 124W and 131W.
Elsewhere seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Seas will subside 
to below 8 ft over the northern portion on Wednesday. Cross- 
equatorial southwest swell is inducing combined seas of 6 to 8 
ft over the far southern waters south of 02N between 108W and 
120W. This swell will be replaced by another batch of southwest
swell on Monday that will reach north to 09N between 96W and
120W. This area of swell will slowly decay through Tuesday while
shifting eastward.

$$
Aguirre

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Page last modified: Sunday, 30-Apr-2017 21:53:06 UTC