East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N75W TO THE EQUATOR AT 
82W...THEN RESUMES FROM NEAR 05N90W TO 04N98W TO 08N110W TO 
02N125W....WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 
01N132W TO BEYOND 02N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH FROM 90W 
TO 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A PARENT UPPER LOW OVER SE 
NEVADA TO 30N120W TO 20N135W TO 18N150W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC BEHIND THE 
TROUGH...WITH NLY FLOW ALOFT SPILLING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE 
AREA. ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...A BROAD AND FLAT 
EQUATORIAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED ALONG 136W....WHILE A LARGE BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS FROM COLOMBIA NW ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THEN N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 85W. A 
NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEPARATES THE TWO TROPICAL 
RIDGES...EXTENDING 11N114W TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR ALONG 105W. 
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC TURNING WITHIN THIS TROUGH AND WEAK 
ANTICYCLONIC VERTICAL WIND SHEAR E TO 100W CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A 
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION. LITTLE 
CHANGE IN THIS MEAN PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK ACROSS FAR 
NE PORTIONS...EXTENDING FROM 30N116W TO 27N124W TO 30N133W. 
FRESH NWLY WINDS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 
OFFSHORE OF SRN CALIFORNIA TO THE FRONT E OF 124W...WHERE SEAS 
HAVE BUILT TO 10 FT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND HIGHER TO THE 
NORTH. A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED JUST NW OF THE AREA 
NEAR 31N142W...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE AND TO THE S OF THE 
FRONT...TO NEAR 20N105W. SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS ALONG 
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO PRODUCE FRESH N-NW WINDS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST. S OF THE HIGH...FRESH TRADE WINDS 
CURRENTLY PREVAIL FROM 08N TO 22N W OF 133W AND FROM 10N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 122W AND 133W...WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE 
SWELL. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE ACROSS BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND THE NE WATERS THROUGH WED WHILE DISSIPATING... 
WITH REINFORCING NW SWELL BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA OF 
FRESH TRADES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
ENCOMPASSING THE WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 130W AND FROM 10N 
TO 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BY WED EVENING. OTHERWISE...NW 
SWELL YIELDING SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT COVERS THE WATERS W OF 110W. 

E OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...GAP WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC...WHILE THE EPAC 
MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS UNUSUALLY WELL ESTABLISHED HERE ACROSS 
THE DEEP TROPICS. RELATIVELY ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN A VERY WET AND UNSTABLE AREA BETWEEN 
102W AND 112W...WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN TRAPPED 
BETWEEN MILD ELY TRADES AND THE PACIFIC RIDGE.

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 KT THROUGH WED EVENING. THE STRONGEST 
WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF 
ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS.

A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT N TO NE WINDS IN AND 
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE 
TO PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH WED EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING