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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162125
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2029 UTC Mon Jan 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 06N77W to low pressure near 01N82W to 
03N90W to 03N96W. The ITCZ extends from 03N96W to 02N105W to
07N118W to 07.5N131W. It resumes at 08N136W to beyond 08N140W. 
No significant convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure area centered near 
31N135W to the south of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the forecast waters off the coast of
Baja California and over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle
winds prevail over the waters off southwest Mexico and the Gulf 
of California. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range off the coast of Baja
California, 2 ft or less over the Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft
elsewhere. 

Looking ahead, global models have been fairly consistent showing
a weak cold front moving into the waters off Baja California 
Norte by Thursday then become diffuse ahead of a stronger cold 
front moving across Baja California and the Gulf of California 
Friday and Saturday. The second front will be accompanied by 
fresh to strong winds and seas of 12 to 13 ft off Baja 
California.


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse the next couple of nights over
the Gulf of Papagayo the next couple of days. Winds will peak
near 25 kt during the late night and early morning hours. 

Elsewhere light to gentle northeast to east winds will persist 
north of about 07N, and light to gentle south to southeast winds 
south of 07N. Seas are around the 3-4 ft range...except slightly 
higher seas north of 07N with little change expected through mid
week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1027 mb centered north of the area near 31N135W
extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The
pressure gradient between lower pressure in the vicinity of the
ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh to strong trade winds from 
12N to 14N west of 132W, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft north of 
07N and west of 120W. The swell will subside below 8 ft from 
north to south through mid week north of 20N, while seas related 
to the trade wind flow will persist from 07N to 20N. 

Looking ahead, the areal coverage of the fresh to strong trade 
winds and associated seas will decrease after mid week as the 
high pressure north of the area weakens ahead of an advancing 
cold front. Northwest swell of 8 to 12 ft will accompany the 
front as it moves eastward across the waters north of 25N 
Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a second front moving south 
of 30N to the east of 130W by Thursday and Friday.

$$
AL