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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280303
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.3N 119.9W AT 28/0300 
UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 
IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
75 KT. JIMENA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS 
NOTED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. NUMEROUS BANDING FEATURES 
ARE SEEN COILING AROUND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) TYPE 
FEATURE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT...60 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT AND 30 
NM SW OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN A BAND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 13.5N122W TO 
15N120W TO 16N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM W AND 180 NM E SEMICIRCLES 
OF JIMENA. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 
EARLY FRI MORNING NEAR 12.3N 123.7W PER LATEST NHC 
ADVISORY....AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD 
UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS N. PLEASE 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

HURRICANE IGNACIO IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 13.1N 
141.4W AT 28/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRES IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL FORCE 
WINDS ARE IMPACTING THE AREA FROM 12N-14.5N W OF 139W WITH SEAS 
OF 13-19 FT. IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PULL FURTHER 
AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH FRI...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 30 KT EARLY ON 
FRI...AND TO 20 KT OR LESS FRI AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SEAS OF 8-10 
FT IN MIXED SWELLS WILL LINGER FROM 12N-119N W OF 137W DURING 
FRI MORNING...AND SUBSIDE TO 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH THESE 
CONDITIONS SHIFTING W OF 140W BY EARLY ON FRI EVENING. PLEASE 
SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
HFOTCMCP3/WTPA23 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 05N83W TO 10N94W 
TO 09N102W TO 09N108W. THE ITCZ IS NOT PRESENTLY IDENTIFIABLE. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 104W-108W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 101W 
AND 106W AND ALSO S OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM OF 07N94W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N126W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N110W. OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE IGNACIO 
AND TROPICAL STORM JIMENA...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE 
NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
LOCATED NW OF THE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS FRI 
WHILE DISSIPATING. 

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-18 
SECOND RANGE HAS REACHED THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS 
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THESE 
COASTS. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL WILL NEAR AND ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE S CENTRAL 
WATERS ON FRI. 

GAP WINDS...                                                  
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL AGAIN FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE GULF LATE TONIGHT UNTO EARLY FRI MORNING...AND AGAIN 
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 8-9 FT. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY 
EVENINGS. 

$$
AGUIRRE


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Page last modified: Friday, 28-Aug-2015 03:03:20 UTC