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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072218
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC SAT FEB 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AS A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS
FROMTHE N CENTRAL GULF SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE
STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 11.5N97.5W. WINDS HERE HAS
JUST DIMINISHED FROM 30-50 KT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SEAS
WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 22 FT. EXPECT
THE STRONG GULF OF MEXICO RIDGING TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG GALES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO MINIMAL
GALES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SEAS
JUST DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 12-
13 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG REINFORCING RIDGE
WILLBUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT TO
PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING
TO NEAR 22 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO STRONG GALES BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST AT MODERATE TO STRONG GALES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR
BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED
FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT TO CREATE HIGH MIXED SEAS
IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. A LARGE PLUME OF WINDS CONTINUES TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ADJACENT NICARAGUAN AND COSTA
RICAN OFFSHORE WATERS TO 06.5N93W...WITH MAX WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR 30 KT. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND ENHANCE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION TO 35 AND POSSIBLY 40 KT. BRIEF GALES ARE ALSO
SUGGESTED BY COMPUTER MODELS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE GULF OF
FONSECA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND WILL OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. GALES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT
IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL
DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 88W-110W THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...          
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N87W TO 03N110W TO 5.5N126W TO
BEYOND04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02.5N TO
05N BETWEEN 92W AND98W...AND FROM 07.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 112W AND
119W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W
OF 120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MAX SEAS ARE
AROUND 8 FT BETWEEN 25N-26N. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS TO
PERSIST IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF AND N OF 30N THROUGH
TUE. THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH ALSO MAINTAINING
AN AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND 15-16N...AND W OF 115W BASED ON MOST RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA...WHICH IS SUPPORTING 9-11 FT SEAS. TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT GENERALLY S OF 13N W OF 110W. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W MON MORNING WITH NW SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA TODAY. FRESH
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THROUGH MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT AS THE FRONT
REMAINS IN FAR NW PORTION MON...THEN WEAKENS TUE.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9-11 FT NEAR 06N81W BY MON AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF 25-
30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO
PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE.

$$
STRIPLING