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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231538
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1307 UTC Sat Jul 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Frank was centered at 18.8N 110.2W at 1500 UTC, or
about 360 nm west of Manzanillo, Mexico. Frank is moving west-
northwest, or 300 degrees at 7 kt. The maximum sustained winds
remain 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 996 mb. Frank is experiencing northerly shear,
displacing most of the deep convection to the south of the center.
Numerous strong convection is noted within 120 nm southwest of
the center. Frank is expected to continue moving northwest and
reach hurricane strength Sunday. Large S to SE swell from Frank
will impact the Mexican coastlines from the Cabo Corrientes region
to Baja California Sur during the next couple of days and generate
rough and dangerous surf. Refer to the latest NHC forecast
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more
details.

Tropical Storm Georgette was centered at 13.9N 121.4W at 1500
UTC, or about 850 nm southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula. Georgette is moving west-northwest or 295 degrees
at 11 kt. The maximum sustained winds remain at 55 kt with gusts
to 65 kt, and estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm in
the southwest semicircle of the storm. Georgette is expected to
continue to move west-northwest and intensify into a hurricane
late tonight to early Sunday morning.Refer to the latest NHC
forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
for more details.

Post-tropical cyclone Estelle was centered at 23.5N 137.5W at
1500 UTC. The estimated pressure was 1012 mb. No significant
convection is noted. Winds and seas will gradually diminish
through the weekend as Estelle continues to weaken as it moves
west-northwest over cooler waters.

Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated with these three systems.

...TROPICAL WAVE... 

A tropical wave north of 11N near 93W/94W is moving into the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region. The wave may be enhancing overnight
convection off the coast of Mexico north of 12N between 94W and
97W. The movement of the tropical wave into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec has weakened the fairly tight gradient in place
yesterday that brought 20 to 25 kt gap winds into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec yesterday morning. 

A second tropical wave is moving onshore from the western
Caribbean into eastern Nicaragua and Honduras. This wave will
shift west across Central America during the next 24-36 hours and
continue to spawn active convection ahead of it.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N90W to 08N105W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm south of the
monsoon trough axis east of 85W. Scattered moderate convection
also noted within 60 nm north of the axis between 90W and 92W, and
within 90 nm either side of the monsoon trough axis between 95W
and 105W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

Frank is approaching the eastern Revillagigedo Islands as a
tropical storm, and is forecast to intensify to a hurricane Sunday
as it continues to move west-northwest. Frank is generating seas
of 6 to 8 ft southeast swell that will reach the southern
entrances of the Gulf of California between Cabo San Lucas and
Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will cover the Pacific
offshore waters off Baja California Sur through early next week
outside of the main storm environment of Frank, as it continues
moving northwest into the open Pacific waters. This will create
rough and hazardous marine conditions across the offshore waters,
and dangerous conditions in the surf zone along exposed coastal
areas of Baja California Sur. Large waves and very strong rip
currents will dominate these coastlines this weekend.

A surface ridge extends from north of the area through 30N130W
toward Baja California Sur. Moderate southerly flow will persist
across the Gulf of California between the ridge and resident
troughing meandering across the peninsula. These southerly winds
may increase to 15 to 20 kt over the far northern portions of the
Gulf of California by tonight as high pressure builds to the
northwest. The building high pressure will also support strong
northerly winds offshore of California tonight through Sunday,
allowing northerly swell to raise seas to 8 ft or higher to
penetrate south to 26N by Sunday. Combined seas of 7 to 9 ft will
develop in the offshore waters off Baja California Norte Sunday
into early next week in mixed swell.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are expected across and
just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight
hours the next several days aided by nocturnal drainage flow.

Farther west, Georgette is moving to the west of the area. The
associated strong winds and seas 8 ft or greater shifting west of
120W through late today.

West of 120W:

The remnant low of Estelle continues to weaken the subtropical
ridge. This has resulted in a light wind flow persisting over the
deep tropics. Fresh east winds continue between Estelle and the
high to the north, but the winds will diminish as Estelle
dissipates as it moves westward. Fresh northerly wind and short
period swell of 7 to 9 ft will push south of 32N to 26N between
119W and 130W Sunday until early next week.

$$
Christensen


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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Jul-2016 15:38:53 UTC