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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252130
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N112W to 12N122W to
a low pressure area near 11N125W 1009 mb to 08N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection within 60 nm N of the low.

...DISCUSSION...   

Very weak surface pressure pattern prevails across the entire
forecast area. As a result, easterly winds are generally light
to gentle on both sides of the convergence zone. Scatterometer
data shows a small area of moderate to fresh NE winds in the
northern quadrant of a tropical low along the trough axis near
11N125W. Model guidance indicates some development to this low
as it tracks westward at 10-15 kt through Tue, but only to 25 kt
in both the GFS and ECMWF forecasts. Could see 20-25 kt winds
and 8 ft seas in N quadrant by Mon near 135W. Elsewhere, a weak
to moderate Tehuantepec diurnal wind event is indicated tonight
and Sun night with winds barely reaching 25 kt and seas to 8 ft
on the strength of residual SW swell that is subsiding across
the area E of 100W. The same effect is occurring downwind from
the Gulf of Papagayo. 20 kt E winds there have bumped residual
seas to 8-9 ft between 87W-93W. Chose to describe these two gap
wind areas as a broad brush N of 09N and E of 96W since winds
are marginal for only 6 hours or so between 09Z-15Z and primary
concern will be seas generated by SW swell propagating into
Central America. Wave guidance indicates another round of long
period SW swell will cross the southern boundary near 03S Sun
afternoon and spread northward between 90W-130W through Wed.

$$
Mundell