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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 136.7W AT 20/2100 
UTC AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
CENTER...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 15N137W TO 
12N140W. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND AN EASTWARD DRIFT 
SHOULD BEGIN ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY  
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE    
DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W AT 20/2100 
UTC MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 150 NM IN THE N AND 240 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLES. LOWELL 
REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL STORM WINDS 
EXTENDING OUT AS MUCH AS 180 NM FROM THE CENTER. LOWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NW TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN 
FORWARD SPEED ON THU THROUGH FRI. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR   
MORE DETAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94W 1008 
MB TO 16N95W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS 
THE WATERS N OF 04N BETWEEN 90W AND 102W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE...N OF 09N E OF THE TROPICAL 
WAVE TO CENTRAL AMERICA...AND ALSO FROM 04N TO 14N W OF THE 
TROPICAL WAVE TO 100W. AN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS 
SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS NE OF THE LOW AND E 
OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS ENERGY WILL FEED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF 
THE LOW WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS EXPANDING 
IN COVERAGE AROUND THE LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT 
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...   

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO LOW PRES      
NEAR 09.5N94W TO 06N103W TO 10N114W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E 
OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 81W AND BETWEEN 82W AND 
86W...WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 103W...AND 
FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 111W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A 1027 MB HIGH IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 39N143W 
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N137W TO BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N115W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTHWARD 
IN ADVANCE OF LOWELL TO THE SE-S. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO 
MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W 
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES 
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THU 
THROUGH FRI AS LOWELL MOVES MOVE INTO THE RIDGE WITH FRESH TO 
STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT IN THE NW 
PORTION. 

AN AREA OF MIXED SE AND SW SWELL WILL APPROACH THE EQUATOR SW OF 
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SHOULD 
REMAIN SUPPRESSED S OF THE EQUATOR.

$$
LEWITSKY



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Aug-2014 21:51:52 UTC