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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC WED JUL 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N127W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. 
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE AND 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THERE 
IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THIS  IS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W OR WNW AT 10 TO 
15 KT. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                           
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 10N90W 
MOVING W 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE...THERE IS NO 
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE. 

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 8N ALONG 102W MOVING W 15 KT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ GENERALLY FROM 06N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 104W AND 109W. 

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N114W TO 09N117W MOVING W 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N TO 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N127W TO 18N129W MOVING W 15 KT. 
THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS LOCATED AT 
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 08N95W. ITCZ FROM 08N95W TO 09N110W 
TO 1008 MB LOW 11N127W TO 1009 MB LOW 09N138W. SCATTERED STRONG 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 133W AND 137W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W 
AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE AXIS
W OF 100W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL  
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. THE MEAN AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 29N133W TO 18N135W. 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS OVER THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG NEARLY 
THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ITCZ. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SW NEW MEXICO NEAR 32N107W WITH 
ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE INTO THE E 
PACIFIC TO A COL NEAR 22N120W. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST S OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 19N112W 
WAS BECOMING STATIONARY. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE PULSED THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TODAY. 
A 1544 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE 
REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT INTO 
THU AND AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI. SEAS BUILD TO 9 FT DURING EACH 
PULSE.   

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS 
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH NLY WINDS 20-25 KT BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20 KT LESS 
AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THU AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N 
OF 15N W OF 115W WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.

$$ 
COBB


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 23-Jul-2014 21:30:40 UTC