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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL TROPICAL STORM CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 100.4W OR ABOUT 260  
MILES S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AT 2100 UTC SEP 16. THE MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. POLO IS MOVING NW OR 
310 DEG AT 10 KT...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH 
POLO TRACKING PARALLEL TO THE SW COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 40 KT 
WITH GUSTS 50 KT...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A 
HURRICANE ON THU. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
16N99W TO 08.5N103W. CONVECTION OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE REACHES 
THE COAST OF MEXICO AND MAY RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE 
POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS ALREADY 
AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

TROPICAL STORM ODILE LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 113.5W AT 2100 UTC SEP 
16 OR ABOUT 150 MILES SSE OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO AND ABOUT 150 MILES 
S OF PUERTO PENASCO MEXICO. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 
MB. ODILE IS MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 06 KT...AND ODILE SHOULD 
CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK INTO THIS EVENING...THEN TURN MORE N-NE 
AND SLOW DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 
KT GUSTS 55 KT AND ODILE SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS STRENGTH WHILE 
TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS...THEN OF COURSE 
RAPID WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND OVER NW MEXICO LATE 
WED. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE N OF 28N. RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 
RAINFALL OF 9 INCHES MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SE ARIZONA... SW 
NEW MEXICO...AND FAR W TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND 
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LARGE SWELLS FROM 
ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE 
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT 
CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN 
CROSSING THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO THE COAST AT 
09N82W...THEN TURNS NW TO 14N104W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE 
BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO. THE 
MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES W POLO NEAR 14N104W AND CONTINUES SW TO  
10N126W...THEN TURNS NW TO AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW AT 12N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE 
N OF 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W...IN A CLUSTER WITHIN 90 NM OF 
13N107W...AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 12N111W 
TO 11.5N118W AND FROM 10N123W TO 09N120W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N128W WITH A RIDGE  
EXTENDING SE TO 13N119W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW TO BEYOND 
21N140W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES 
ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N134W TO 26N140W. SOUTHERLY 
FLOW IS AT 20-25 KT TO THE N OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT 
WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT. MIXED NW AND S SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS 
OF 8-9 FT W OF A LINE FROM 30N131W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT WILL 
WEAKEN FROM 30N132W TO 24N140W ON WED AND THU WITH SEAS EXPECTED 
TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ON THU.

LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT OR MORE ACROSS MOST OF THE 
FORECAST AREA E OF 105W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF POLO THROUGH 
THU AS THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL DAMPENS.

$$ 
NELSON


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2014 22:00:15 UTC