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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250912
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 UTC Sat Jun 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N90W...then from
08N93W to 08N103W to 12N117W to 12N121W...and finally from 11N126W
to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is occurring within 120 nm of the trough E of 100W. Scattered
moderate convection is taking place within 120 nm of the trough W
of 126W.

A surface trough extends from 05N92W to 11N91W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is found from 04N to 11N
between 90W and 93W. Another surface trough curves from 08N124W to
13N123W to 17N120W. Scattered moderate convection is present from
07N to 13N between 120W and 126W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

A NNW to SSE-oriented trough will wander E and W over the Baja
California peninsula and the Gulf of California for the next
several days. This will set the stage for light to gentle S to SW
winds over the Gulf waters through at least Tue.

Fresh to strong N winds are expected to continue along the
California coast through Wed. N swell generated by the winds will
combine with SW swell to maintain combined seas between 8 and 9 ft
N of 27N and W of 118W.

Long period SW swell are subsiding but still producing combined
seas between 7 and 10 ft S of 23N and E of 120W. Seas will
continue subsiding and drop below 8 ft by late Sun night.

Strong N winds are expected to develop across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec tonight and again on Sun night. Associated seas will
only top out at 8 ft due to the short duration of the northerly
pulses.

S of 15N E of 120W:

A short lived gap wind event will affect the Gulf of Papagayo
today as N to NE winds of 20 to 25 kt cause seas to build to
between 8 and 9 ft. Winds will subside to below 20 kt and seas
will fall to below 8 ft by this evening.

Moderate monsoonal flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, while
gentle to moderate NE to E winds are observed N of the monsoon
trough.

Long period cross-equatorial SW swell are maintaining combined
seas of 7 to 8 ft E of 115W, except within about 360 nm NE of the
Galapagos islands. These seas will continue to subside and fall
below 8 ft by Sun night...except for S of the equator where SW
swell will maintain seas around 8 ft until Mon. Seas will rebuild
on Tue and Wed as another round of SW swell arrives from the
southern hemisphere.

W of 120W:

A broad ridge still presides over the EPAC waters to the N of 15N
and to the W of 120W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are observed
roughly N of 25N and in the vicinity of a surface trough from 13N
to 18N and E of 135W. Otherwise, light to moderate NE trades are
seen N of the monsoon trough. Moderate SW winds are occurring S of
the monsoon trough. This general setup for winds is expected to
continue for the next few days.

$$
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