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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU OCT 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE S OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 16N94W TO 14N94W TOWARD THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN 
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH SHARP RIDGING EXTENDING SE 
ACROSS FAR SE MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL 
SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS BY EARLY FRI. THE GFS AND UKMET  
INDICATE THESE WINDS...WITH THE UKMET EVEN SHOWING 40 KT 10-M 
WINDS WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL 
THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING LIKELY HELPING TO 
DEVELOP LOW PRES ALONG THE TROUGH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 13N93W TO 09N100W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W 1011 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N125W 1011 
MB TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
95W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM 
N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 
30N133W WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 
20N110W. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH 
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS E OF 110W. 

NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS 
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA W OF 110W WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 
TO 10 FT. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY W OF 110W WITH THE AREA OF SEAS 
8 FT OR GREATER PROPAGATING SE COVERING THE WATERS S OF 10N 
BETWEEN 92W AND 106W BY 48 HOURS. 

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER TONIGHT...BREACHING 
30N140W BY 12 UTC FRI WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND IT 
ALONG WITH 8-13 FT SEAS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES 
TO THE E-SE REACHING 30N127W TO 26N133W TO 23N140W BY 48 HOURS 
WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY FRI 
EVENING...WHILE SEAS WILL STILL BE 8-12 FT BEHIND THE FRONT BY 
EARLY SAT.

OTHERWISE...A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ONE NEAR 10N112W AND  
THE OTHER NEAR 10N128W. UPPER TROUGHING W OF THE AREA IS 
SUPPORTING AREAS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW PRES AREAS AND ALONG 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE LOWS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Oct-2014 21:29:05 UTC