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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220335
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Feb 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure is building 
southeastward across eastern Mexico and the western Gulf of 
Mexico behind a cold frontal system that has shifted into the 
eastern Bay of Campeche. Strong N winds west of the front are 
funneling through the Chivela pass and across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec this evening, and recent 0000 UTC scatterometer date 
indicated gale force winds wihtin 60 nm of the coast. These 
northerly gap winds are expected to spread southward to near 
14N95.5W overnight, with seas building to 12 ft. This overnight 
gap wind event will be brief, then diminish below gale force by 
sunrise Wednesday morning and then gradually diminish to 20-25 
kt Wednesday afternoon.

Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for additional details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

There is no ITCZ over the forecast waters north of the equator.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale 
force gap wind event. 

Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail across much of the 
forecast waters west of Baja as indicated by the latest 
satellite-derived wind data. Seas continue in the 6-9 ft range 
in NW swell across the Baja offshore waters, and 5-8 ft across 
the waters adjacent to southwest Mexico. A modest pressure 
gradient between a 1026 mb high pressure centered near 29N123W 
and lower pressure across the western flanks of the Sierra 
Madres is producing fresh to locally strong northwesterly winds 
across most of the Gulf of California, where seas are running 3-
6 ft. These winds will diminish very slowly over the next 24 
hours while the strongest winds shift into N portions of the 
gulf.

A fresh pulse of NW swell generated by a cold front west of the 
area is moving toward the Baja California Norte offshore waters 
this afternoon. This swell will continue to propagate across the 
waters off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and 
maintain seas in the 8-12 ft range over this area through early 
Friday. Building high pressure west of Baja California is 
expected to produce fresh to strong NW winds along the western 
Baja California coast north of 25N Wednesday night through 
Thursday night and over the Gulf of California N of 30N on 
Thursday morning. Winds will subside as the high weakens in 
response to low pressure approaching from the west. Seas are 
then expected to subside below 8 ft in this area Friday night 
through the weekend. Another cold front could bring yet another 
round of NW swell to Baja waters on Monday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh winds this morning
will subside by this evening.

Gulf of Panama: Moderate winds will become light on Wednesday.

Otherwise, winds will be in the light to gentle range over the
forecast area.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

As mentioned above, high pressure of 1026 mb is stationary near 
29N123W. A frontal boundary has stalled across the northern 
waters from 30N125W TO 21N140W. Winds in the vicinity of this 
front have diminished to 20 kt or less. Large NW swell generated 
north of the front continues to produce peak seas of 12-13 ft 
near 29N133W and propagate SE across the forecast waters. The 
front is beginning to weaken, and is expected to dissipate as it 
begins to move SE again later tonight through Wednesday. This NW 
swell will continue to dominate the forecast waters, with seas 
greater than 8 ft covering much of the forecast waters north of 
10N and west of 110W. A small area of 20 to 25 kt NE winds is 
expected to affect the waters from 22N to 25N west of 131W along 
the dissipating frontal boundary Wednesday and Wednesday night. 
Areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft will start to decrease 
the second half of the week. 

$$
Stripling


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Feb-2017 03:35:42 UTC