| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221518
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1518 UTC Thu Jun 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 1008 mb low 
pressure near 14N95W to 06N135W. The intertropical convergence 
zone axis extends from 06N135W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 12N 
between 77W and 87W, from 07N to 14N between 94W and 98W, and
within 60 nm either side of monsoon trough axis between 105W and
120W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough remains in place from 27N115W near Cabo Eugenia
to 1009 mb low pressure near 23N118W to 16N125W. This is breaking
up the usual subtropical ridge in the area, maintaining a fairly
light pressure pattern and subsequent wind pattern off the Baja
California peninsula, where various ship observations confirm
light to gentle breezes. Recent altimeter satellite passes
indicated long period northwest swell with wave height reaching 
8 to 10 ft persist over the waters beyond 120 off the coast off
the Baja California peninsula as far south as 25N, with 5 to 7 ft
closer to shore. The swell will decay below 8 ft through early
Friday. The trough will dissipate through late Friday, allowing
the ridge to build eastward. This will support moderate to
occasionally fresh northwest winds along the Baja coast through
Sunday with 5 to 7 ft seas. Looking ahead, the pattern will
repeat as weak troughing develops off the Baja coast allowing 
winds to diminish slightly early next week.

Recent scatterometer also indicates gentle to moderate southerly
flow across the Gulf of California between the trough and weak
ridging off Cabo Corrientes. Locally fresh winds are possible
near Los Cabos and over the northern Gulf of California later
today, but otherwise moderate breezes and slight seas will
persist through early next week. 

Farther south, 1008 mb low pressure centered near 14N95W will
continue to move slowly to the west-northwest over the next
couple of days. In addition to supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms in its vicinity, the low pressure will enhance east
to southeast winds off the coasts of Chiapas and Oaxaca through 
Saturday with seas building to 7 ft. The current forecast is for
the low to gradually weaken thereafter as it drifts northwestward
along the Mexican coast toward Cabo Corrientes through early 
next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are expected across 
most of the forecast area during the forecast period, with the 
exception of mainly south winds between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands, as the pressure gradient remains weak. Long 
period southwest swell of 5 to 7 ft will gradually decay through
the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates most of the waters north of the convergence 
zone. Scatterometer and altimeter passes continue to indicate an 
area of moderate to fresh winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft roughly
north of 20N and W of 120W. The ridge will shift west as a weak 
low near 23N118W with an attendant trough drift west. The low 
and troughing will continue to drift southwest to west before 
dissipating Saturday.

Northerly swell will continue to propagate across the waters
N of 20N, building to 10 to 12 ft N of 28N through Friday, as 
fresh swell moves in around a low pressure system N of the area.
Seas will decay through the upcoming weekend as the low moves NW
while weakening.

$$
Christensen

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Jun-2017 15:18:26 UTC