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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222222
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Feb 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

There is no ITCZ over the forecast waters north of the equator. 
As is typical for this time of year, the Eastern Pacific ITCZ is 
currently evident across the southern hemisphere, and just S of 
the Equator.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec...the cold front across the Gulf of Mexico 
has shifted eastward of the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon, 
while winds across the SW Gulf of Mexico have shifted to the SW. 
The pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region continues to 
slowly weaken, and early afternoon scatterometer data showed 
only a narrow plume of N winds 20-25 kt across and downstream of 
Tehuantepec. Seas there have subsided to 6-9 ft. Winds will 
continue to diminish overnight through Thursday to around 15 kt, 
and then shift S to SW on Friday, ahead of the next cold front 
to approach the Gulf of Mexico. 

West of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the pressure gradient has 
tightened across the region, between building high pressure west 
of the Baja California peninsula and a trough along western 
Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail across north and 
central portions of the Baja California waters, and extend 
westward to 120W. Seas across these waters are running 7-10 ft 
in mixed NW swell, at 4-6 ft over the southern Baja California 
waters to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Inside the Gulf of 
California, moderate NW winds generally prevail, with seas 3-5 
ft across the southern waters and 1-3 ft over the northern 
waters. High pressure centered over the NE Pacific will build SE 
across these offshore waters tonight through Friday to further 
tighten the pressure gradient. Winds offshore of the Baja 
Peninsula will increase modestly during this time, with the 
potential for isolated areas of 25-30 kt winds across the Bahia 
de Sebastian Vizcaino tonight. The high pressure NW of the area 
will weaken by Saturday in response to low pressure approaching 
from the west, with winds diminishing accordingly. NW swell will 
continue propagating SE during the next few days and maintain 
seas greater than 8 ft off the coast of Baja California, but are 
expected to subside below 8 ft by late Friday night. Another 
cold front will introduce another round of NW swell to Baja 
California Norte by Monday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds will prevail through Saturday. Winds will
freshen off the coast of Central America Saturday night through
Sunday night as gap winds develop in response to building high 
pressure over the Caribbean.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Subsiding NW swell continue to propagate across the forecast 
waters. Seas greater than 8 ft cover much of the forecast waters 
north of 06N and west of 118W. Satellite-derived altimeter data 
indicate seas as high as 12 ft near 23N124W at around noon time. 
Areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft have begun to decrease 
and will continue to do so for the remainder of the week as the 
high pressure ridge to the north and low pressure trough over 
eastern Mexico weaken. By Friday seas will subside below 8 ft 
over most of the forecast area, except over the NW waters due to 
the arrival of a cold front which will usher in fresh NW swell. 
Combined seas associated with this swell will peak around 12 ft 
Saturday night over the NW waters. Strong to near gale winds are 
expected both ahead of, and behind, the front as it crosses the 
northern waters this weekend. 

$$
Stripling


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Feb-2017 22:22:53 UTC