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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221611
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 06N91W TO 
07N103W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 08N112W TO 06N125W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W-112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W-122W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

UPPER LEVELS...THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 
30.5N129W DOMINATES THE AREA W OF ABOUT 111W. TO ITS E...A SHARP 
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES SW FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO JUST S OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND TO 15N119W. A RATHER PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL JET 
STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL DEEP TROPICS ENE THROUGH 
19N140W...AND DIVES SEWD TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH 
THEN NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL 
MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED EASTWARD ALONG THIS JET STREAM. THIS 
MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR NE AS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 15N TO 20N... 
AND THEN CONTINUES NEWD TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG...AND WITHIN 
10 DEG S OF THE JETSTREAM BRANCH W OF 120W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
IS PREVALENT N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM. THIS IS 
MAINTAINING DRY AND SINKING AIR OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED JUST N OF 
THE AREA NEAR 34N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH 
30N127W TO 15N103W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S IS MAINTAINING A 
SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL WATERS N 
OF 25N BETWEEN 120W-125W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST 
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 111W FROM 05N TO 11N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 
111W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS 
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT 
NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL OVER THE 
WATERS FROM 07-18N W OF 125W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING 
AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE REST 
OF TODAY WITH THESE WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 100W WITH RESULTANT 
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE 
THROUGH WED AS THE SWELL ENERGY DISSIPATES. GUIDANCE IS 
SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM 28N TO 29N ON WED. 

GAP WINDS...                                                 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 15-20 KT NW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW 
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE 
MORNING...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS SPREADING S TO NEAR 25N BY EARLY 
WED...WITH 25-30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 8 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS 
RAPIDLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 20-30 KT WED AFTERNOON...THEN 
INCREASE TO STRONG GALE WED EVENING WITH A POSSIBILITY THAT 
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT INTO 
THU MORNING. WILL ADJUST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ACCORDINGLY BASED ON 
UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH 
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT. 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH 
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-30 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT.

$$
AGUIRRE



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Page last modified: Monday, 22-Dec-2014 16:11:44 UTC