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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052218
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU FEB 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2015 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STORM FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING HAVE DIMINISHED TO STRONG GALES TO
AROUND 45 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FURTHER TO A MAX OF 40 KT ON SAT MORNING. STRENGTHENING
POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE AGAIN LATE SAT...AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY SAT NIGHT. A STRONG GALE AT SUNRISE SUN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT SUN TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AT
SUNRISE ON MON. GLOBAL MODELS THEN SUGGESTS STORM CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MON NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAVE DIMINISHED TO 25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEPICTED BY 1652
UTC ASCAT DATA...AND THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SEAS REMAIN EXTREMELY ROUGH THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...AND ARE
STILL RUNNING 8-11 FT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCING THESE STRONG WINDS IS NOT EXPECTED
TO CHANGE MUCH...AND THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
TO 20-25 KT MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS COULD STILL BE SEEN TONIGHT IN THE LEE OF THE TIBURON
BASIN. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG ENE WINDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL THROUGH GAPS AND BAYS NEAR
THE PACIFIC COASTS TODAY. THIS IS PRODUCING A LARGE PLUME OF
STRONG ENE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT
COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING SW TO NEAR
06.5N92.5W...WHERE SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8-10 FT. A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY SE OVERNIGHT
ANDALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION...
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO 20-30 KT
TONIGHT...AND EXPAND N TO THE GULF OF FONSECA.  WINDS AND
SEASWILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER ACROSS THE REGION...AND INCREASES WINDS
TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS PROLONGED GAP WIND EVENT IS IMPACTING THE
ENTIRE REGION FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO MERGE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT
ANDGREATER WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND...AND ENCOMPASS THE
AREAFROM 01N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 112W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM NEAR
06.5N83W AND EXTENDS W TO 04N91W TO 06N122W...THEN SW TO BEYOND
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N86W TO 03N104W AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N113W TO 07N122W
TO 05N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1030 MB HIGH SE THROUGH 23N120W TO 21N112W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS
THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 120W...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY 10-15 KT N-NE
WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 108-113W...AND 5-10 KT NE-E WINDS N
OF 15N BETWEEN 97-110W...WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED
STORM/GALE EVENT ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE OF CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. NW SWELLS...IN THE FORM OF COMBINED 7-11 FT
SEAS...CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND BAJA...BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON SAT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS
EXPECTED BY SUN NIGHT. 

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 05N W
OF 106W. PULSES FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 06N81W. 

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 05-20N W OF 122W THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHRINKING TO 05-10N W OF 127W BY EARLY
MON...WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE AND
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. LARGE NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 8-14 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE W OF 106W. THESE SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MON...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR 30N140W ON WED EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N W OF 138W ON TUE NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING

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Page last modified: Friday, 05-Feb-2016 22:18:52 UTC