| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312206 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON AUG 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 136.7W AS OF 31/2100 UTC 
OR ABOUT 1069 NM E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 14 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO 
SLOW SOME AND TURN TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE 
CENTER REACHES THE W PERIPHERY OF WEAKENING A SUB-TROPICAL 
RIDGE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 20 NM DIAMETER EYE...WITHIN 120 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE IN BANDS 
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. JIMENA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA 12 
FT OR GREATER SEAS OUTWARD TO 480 NM N AND 270 NM S OF THE 
CENTER. THE SURROUNDING AREA TO 20-33 KT WINDS IS NEARLY 
CONCENTRIC WITH THE RADIUS OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS. REFER TO 
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IS CENTERED 12.4N 
111.8W AS OF 31/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 639 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS WHAT WAS FORMERLY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED A 
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION... 
DEEP CONVECTION OF THE SCATTERED STRONG INTENSITY HAS FORMED 
PARTIALLY OVER THE CENTER...AS WELL AS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE 
SW QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MINIMAL 
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 13.5N 113.0W LATE TONIGHT...AND ONLY 
INTENSIFY A LITTLE AS IT NEARS 14.7N 114.2W BY TUE AFTERNOON AND 
NEAR 18.3N 115.6W BY WED AFTERNOON. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 
KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA 
RICA AT 10N86W TO AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N89W WITH THE 
TROUGH THEN CONTINUING SW TO 09N96W...THEN TURNS NW TO 
12N107W...THEN CONTINUES SW THROUGH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-
E AND TO 10N118W TO 12N126W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE AREA 
OF E BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE 
JIMENA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W-96W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 119W-
122W...AND TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 
07N139W TO 09N135W TO 10N133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE EXTENDS SEWD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32W136W TO NEAR 
28N129W TO NEAR 23N120W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N 
W OF 119W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE 
TYPICAL THERMAL TROUGH ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING 15-20 
KT TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE RIDGE TO ALONG 23N WHERE 
THE TRADES GRADUALLY INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLONE 
JIMENA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE THEN THESE 
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS JIMENA CROSSES 140W ON TUE 
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NW 15-20 KT 
WINDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS N OF 27N E OF 123W TO THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN NW SWELL 
PROPAGATING S TO 23N. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH EARLY TUE 
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT BY MIDDAY WED. THE 1010 MB LOW 
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N89W IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS FORECAST 
TO FORM TO THE SW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E NEAR OR 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE PROXIMITY OF 10N120W BY WED.

UPPER LEVELS...                                                 
BROAD TROUGHING N OF JIMENA EXTENDS EASTWARD TO THE FAR NE PART 
OF THE AREA. TO ITS S...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS NEAR 20N118W 
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN IT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
FOURTEEN-E. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FOURTEEN-E TO MOVE IN A NORTHWARD DIRECTION. 

$$
AGUIRRE

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Aug-2015 22:07:06 UTC